镍与不锈钢日评：宏观反复，驱动不足-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The fundamentals of nickel are relatively loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 29, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and there is cost support. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Nickel Futures Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange Nickel: - Prices: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121450 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 680 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 750 yuan/ton, and 710 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 136812 lots (+6981), and the open interest was 89621 lots (-2584) [2]. - Inventory: The inventory was 21905 tons (-108) [2]. - LME Nickel: - Prices: On August 29, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15190 dollars/ton (+185), the electronic - trading closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158), and the on - floor closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158) [2]. - Volume: The trading volume was 7266 lots (-788) [2]. - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons (-201564), and the total inventory was 209544 tons (-132) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange Stainless Steel: - Prices: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed certain fluctuations. For example, the near - month contract closing price was 12760 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 109373 lots (-12493), and the open interest was 122203 lots (-4913) [2]. - Inventory: The inventory was 99772 tons (-659) [2]. Spot Market Data - Nickel Spot: - Prices: On August 29, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122400 yuan/ton (+650), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123550 yuan/ton (+700), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121600 yuan/ton (+650) [2]. - Premiums: The average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract was 2300 yuan/ton (+50), and the average premium of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) over the Shanghai nickel contract was 350 yuan/ton (0) [2]. - Stainless Steel Spot: - Prices: For 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13700 yuan/ton (0), and for 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13100 yuan/ton (+75) [2]. - Premiums: The basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price over the active contract was 850 yuan/ton (+35) [2]. Inventory Data - Nickel Ore Inventory: As of August 29, SMM China port nickel - ore total inventory was 8740000 wet tons (+540000), and the total national port nickel - ore inventory was 6000000 wet tons (0) [2]. - Nickel Inventory: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory totaled 4700 tons (0), and SMM pure - nickel social inventory was 39470 tons (-1402) [2]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: The 300 - series stainless - steel spot inventory was 622700 tons (-3300) [2].