集运日报：SCFI保持下跌趋势，盘面承压下行，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250901

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, so it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The overall supply - demand situation has no significant change. The freight rates on European routes continue to decline, the market is not optimistic about the subsequent freight rate trends, and the market remains under pressure [4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [2]. - The value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. Market Situation - The SCFI maintains a downward trend, the market is under pressure and volatile, and it's not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [1]. - As of August 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1261.0, down 2.15%, with a trading volume of 25,200 lots and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 988 lots from the previous day [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - loss [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension continues, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. - On August 29, the Israeli Defense Forces continued operations in the Middle East, including a "major strike" on strategic targets of the Yemeni Houthi rebels [6]. - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary ruling unified duty rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [6]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].