2025年8月社融预测：26928亿元

• The report introduces a bottom-up social financing (社融) prediction framework, which predicts the total amount and structure of social financing by analyzing the characteristics of its sub-items. This approach allows for more detailed and accurate predictions of both the total and structural aspects of social financing[1][8][9] - The framework uses various predictive methods for different sub-items of social financing. For example, enterprise loans and short-term loans are predicted using PMI and Tangshan steel plant capacity utilization rates as independent variables in rolling regression models. Similarly, resident medium- and long-term loans are forecasted based on the three-stage characteristics of housing sales data[9] - For enterprise bill financing, the model uses rediscount rates as exogenous variables and applies a 5-year rolling autoregression for prediction. Government bonds are tracked using high-frequency issuance and maturity data, with adjustments for discrepancies in reporting standards. Enterprise bonds are predicted using a 5-year rolling regression to reweight sub-items and reduce discrepancies[9] - Other sub-items, such as foreign currency loans, trust loans, and entrusted loans, are forecasted using historical averages or high-frequency tracking data. For example, foreign currency loans are smoothed using the past three months' average, while trust loans are approximated by tracking the issuance and maturity of collective and single trust products[9] - The report provides a detailed prediction for August 2025, estimating new social financing at approximately 2.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.34 trillion yuan. The total social financing stock is expected to grow by 8.88% year-on-year. Specific sub-item predictions include new RMB loans of 0.94 trillion yuan, government bond net financing of 1.36 trillion yuan, and enterprise bond net financing of 0.10 trillion yuan[8][9][17] - The structural prediction highlights that while the total credit volume shows a year-on-year decline, the structure has improved. For instance, new enterprise loans are expected to increase year-on-year, supported by a stronger PMI of 49.4% compared to the previous year. However, government bond issuance is predicted to slow down due to a high base effect from the previous year[10][17] - The report also notes that the prediction model does not account for the impact of local government refinancing bonds, which could lead to deviations in enterprise credit net financing predictions[10]