五矿期货农产品早报-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by global supply pressure, with USDA's reduction in planting area having short - term positive effects on CBOT soybeans, but the upward momentum of soybean import costs is uncertain. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound [2][4]. - The palm oil export in Malaysia increased in August, and its production had different trends in different periods. The overall situation of the oil market is complex, with both positive and negative factors, and palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [6][9]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to decline in the long - term, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production situation [12]. - The cotton market has the possibility of marginal improvement in fundamentals, and short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at high levels [15]. - The egg market has high inventory and flat demand, and the egg price is expected to first decline slightly and then rise slightly this week. The market needs more forced culling for an upward trend [18][19]. - The pig price increased over the weekend due to supply reduction and demand boost. The 9 - month supply may be weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound in the futures market [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 Important Information - The US soybean market is in a state of shock, and the domestic soybean meal market is relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. The weekend domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly. The US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, and the soybean import cost is weakly stable [2]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the cost performance of soybeans after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to enter the destocking phase in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to try long at the low end of the cost range and be cautious at the high end [4]. Oils Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in August, and its production had different trends in different periods. The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is 19.9 million tons [6]. Trading Strategy - The oil market is affected by both positive and negative factors. Palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly before the inventory accumulates sufficiently and the demand feedback is negative [9]. Sugar Important Information - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated on Friday, and the spot price decreased slightly. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, while the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased [11]. Trading Strategy - The domestic sugar market is expected to decline in the long - term, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production situation [12]. Cotton Important Information - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell on Friday. The spot price decreased slightly. The spinning mill's operating rate increased slightly, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased [14]. Trading Strategy - Considering the approaching consumption season and low inventory, the cotton market has the possibility of marginal improvement, and short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at high levels [15]. Eggs Spot Information - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with partial increases. The inventory is still high, and cold - storage eggs entering the market increase the pressure. The demand is flat, but there is room for improvement at the low level [17]. Trading Strategy - The market pessimism intensifies, and the supply - side improvement is limited. The demand can only support the price, and the market needs more forced culling for an upward trend [19]. Pigs Spot Information - The domestic pig price increased over the weekend due to supply reduction and demand boost, and it is expected to continue rising today [21]. Trading Strategy - The futures market's expectation for the future is not high. The 9 - month supply may be weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound [22].