Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 08:57Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market has strongly broken through recent levels. The main drivers include the continuous strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a rate cut in September becoming the market's baseline scenario. If the subsequent US non - farm data shows weakness, there is a possibility of three rate cuts within the year. Historically, precious metal prices tend to be relatively strong when rate - cut expectations rise [2]. - Trump's continuous pressure on Fed officials threatens the Fed's policy independence, boosting safe - haven sentiment and gold prices. Silver, as a high - beta variety, follows gold's upward movement. Also, the gold - silver ratio is above the historical central level, with room for further repair, potentially pulling up the silver price [2]. - In the previous months, gold was in a range - bound state due to frequent disturbances from tariff and inflation expectations. Recently, the market's rate - cut expectations have been gradually consolidated, and trading sentiment has turned optimistic [2]. - Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the US August PMI and non - farm employment data. If the data deviates from expectations, there may be a phase - wise correction, but a rate cut in September is almost a "fact", and the possibility of a significant decline is low unless the employment data is significantly more optimistic than expected. Technically, both gold and silver are in the overbought zone, with a short - term adjustment need [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 800.56 yuan/gram, up 15.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9775 yuan/kilogram, up 389 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 140,691 lots, up 4,000 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 294,815 lots, up 31,945 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 164,870 lots, up 3,137 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 123,108 lots, up 8,690 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The gold warehouse receipts were 39,744 kilograms, up 120 kilograms; the silver warehouse receipts were 1,207,227 kilograms, up 11,231 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 795.38 yuan/gram, up 2.07 yuan; the silver spot price was 9,656 yuan/kilogram, up 291 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.18 yuan/gram, down 0.05 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 119 yuan/kilogram, down 58 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings were 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons [2]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 214,311 contracts, up 1,721 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 46,466 contracts, down 83 contracts [2]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 8.21%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 9.94%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 16.28%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump's global tariff policy and the prosecution for the removal of Fed Governor Cook are facing a final ruling by the US Supreme Court [2]. - Japan and the US are discussing special measures to reduce the burden of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan and a presidential order to lower auto tariffs [2]. - Despite the US Court of Appeals ruling most of Trump's tariffs illegal, the Trump administration continues trade negotiations [2]. - The market is focused on the upcoming US non - farm payroll data, which may determine the expected scale of the Fed's interest - rate cut later this month [2]. - The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, and 0.3% month - on - month [2]. - According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.4%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.6%, a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut is 45.8%, and a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 48.6% [2]. 3.6 Price Ranges to Watch - Shanghai Gold 2510 contract: 750 - 850 yuan/gram; Shanghai Silver 2510 contract: 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/kilogram [2]. - London gold price: 3,450 - 3,550 US dollars/ounce; London silver price: 39 - 41 US dollars/ounce [2].