Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 08:56Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season, with a slight increase in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of a small and stable increase in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with a positive industry outlook. Light - position range - bound trading is also advised [2]. - The cast aluminum market may see a slight reduction in supply and an increase in demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trading at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Aluminum - related Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,645 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,008 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 15,429 lots, while the positions of the alumina main contract increased by 7,078 lots [2]. - LME Aluminum: The three - month quote of LME electrolytic aluminum was 2,619 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,873 tons to 481,050 tons [2]. - Other Aluminum Products: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the positions decreased by 127 lots [2]. Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,620 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - Alumina Spot: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina: Alumina production was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; demand was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; supply - demand balance was 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons. The import and export volumes both increased [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton. China's import and export volumes of aluminum scrap increased [2]. Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import and export volumes of primary aluminum increased. The total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production was 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Products: The production of aluminum products decreased, while the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot: The production increased, while the built - in production capacity decreased [2]. Downstream and Application - Automobile: The national real estate climate index decreased. The production of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days increased by 0.28%, while that for 40 days decreased by 0.40%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money decreased slightly, and the put - call ratio decreased [2]. Industry News - The US economic data shows a mixed situation, with the Fed hinting at a September interest rate cut. China's economic climate is generally expanding, but the auto circulation industry's climate has declined [2]. - The global auto market is at a peak level, and the performance of Chinese listed companies in the first half of 2025 is good in some industries [2].