过剩格局不改，LME库存持续去化支撑锌价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has an oversupply situation with increasing supply and weak demand, and the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating. The fundamental surplus pattern remains unchanged. Considering the current warm macro - sentiment and the continuous decline of LME inventory to an absolute low level, it provides some support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices will maintain a range - bound pattern, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, continuous attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and overseas risks [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.61% to 22,140 yuan/ton, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.86% to 21,940 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.30% to 2,814 US dollars/ton [10]. - Due to good profits, the supply of zinc ingots remained loose. The start - up rate of galvanizing decreased due to poor demand and environmental protection impacts. The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy slightly increased with a slight improvement in demand. The inventory of zinc oxide finished products decreased with improved shipments. The social inventory of zinc ingots continued to accumulate [4][15]. 3.2 Raw Material End - Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory: As of August 29, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc., was 414,000 tons, an increase of 25,500 tons compared to the previous period [18]. - Zinc Concentrate Profit: As of August 28, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,748 yuan/metal ton. In July, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3,035,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.20% [25]. - Import TC: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 93.75 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 3.3 Supply End - Refined Zinc Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of August 28, the production profit was - 188 yuan/ton. In July, the domestic refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons. It is expected that the output in August will increase to about 620,000 - 630,000 tons [33]. - Refined Zinc Import: The import profit window was closed. As of August 29, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,839.26 yuan/ton. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,600 tons [36]. 3.4 Demand End - Galvanizing: The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.95 percentage points to 55.47%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. The weak black prices, poor downstream demand, environmental protection restrictions, and other factors led to a continuous decline in the start - up rate [40][43]. - Die - Casting Zinc Alloy: The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.83% to 22,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.81% to 23,185 yuan/ton. The start - up rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 50.78%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory slightly increased [49][50][54]. - Zinc Oxide: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.47% to 21,100 yuan/ton. The start - up rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 51.69%. Both the raw material inventory and the finished product inventory decreased [58][61][64]. 3.5 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: As of August 28, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 134,700 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 7,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. As of August 29, the SHFE inventory was 86,000 tons, showing an increase [69][72]. - LME Inventory: As of August 28, the LME inventory was 56,500 tons, dropping to an absolute low level [72]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In June 2025, the supply - demand balance was 24,000 tons; in May, it was - 21,600 tons; in April, it was - 44,000 tons; in March, it was - 15,200 tons; in February, it was 89,700 tons; in January, it was 4,800 tons [78].