Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 08:50Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The low inventory of old apples, high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, and demand expectations for the Mid - Autumn Festival will boost prices. It is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - losses to control risks. Attention should be paid to the market situation of early - maturing Fuji apples [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 8374 yuan/ton. The holding volume of the main contract is 58414 hands, with a decrease of 8249 hands. The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions is 5378 hands, with a decrease of 1485 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 75 and above) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.74 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.54 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, with a decrease of 6.56 million tons. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage is 0.07, with a decrease of 0.01. The capacity utilization ratio of Shaanxi apple cold - storage is 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, with an increase of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars, with a decrease of 212886 million US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1742602 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.69 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 1.07 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.7 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.5 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11.4 vehicles, with an increase of 3.8 vehicles. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 4.8 vehicles. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 22.2 vehicles, with an increase of 7.2 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.38%, with an increase of 1.51%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 3.22%, with a decrease of 18.16% [2] Industry News - On September 1, 2025, early - maturing Fuji apples were sporadically listed in the western production areas. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing high - quality goods is high, and the semi - commodity order price is maintained at 4.00 - 5.00 yuan/jin. The sales of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples have slightly improved, and cold - storage facilities are actively disposing of inventory [2] Viewpoint Summary - According to preliminary estimates, the national apple output in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of apple cold - storage in the main production areas is 33.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.48 million tons compared to the previous week. The overall quality of early - maturing fruits is poor, and there are concerns about the quality of late - maturing Fuji apples. Due to the expected low excellent - fruit rate, the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples is expected to be high [2]