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瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250901

Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Daily Report on the Pig Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 1, 2025, the national daily pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 15.06% compared to Friday, and the 2511 pig contract rose 0.33% on Monday [2] - Due to the implementation of the transfer policy on September 1st and the reduction at the beginning of the month, the short - term supply pressure has eased, but the medium - term supply pressure remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increasing cycle of fertile sows [2] - The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs continues to widen, providing conditions for later pressure on inventory and secondary fattening [2] - The pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchases for storage" and "rotational purchases for storage" to stabilize the market [2] - With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous recovery of the slaughterhouse's operating rate [2] - In general, the short - term supply pressure still exists, suppressing pig prices, but the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, and with the recovery of the operating rate and the storage purchase policy, the short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and the market will operate weakly with fluctuations. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for pigs is 13,625 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 70 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 75,464 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,828 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts for pigs is 430 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,798 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,278 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 14,100 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 400 yuan/ton; in Siping, Jilin is 13,600 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,500 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 400 yuan/ton [2] - The main basis for pigs is 475 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 330 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, with an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of fertile sows is 4,0420,000 heads, with a decrease of 10,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI for the current month is 0%, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn is 2,364.12 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.59 yuan/ton [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 908.84, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.95 [2] - The monthly output of feed is 28,273,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,104,000 tons [2] - The price of binary fertile sows is 1,625 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2 yuan/head [2] - The breeding profit from purchasing piglets is - 148.41 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising pigs is 32.24 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1.71 yuan/head [2] - The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, with no change; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 31,660,000 heads, with an increase of 1,600,000 heads [2] - The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.41 billion yuan, with a decrease of 20.35 billion yuan [2]