Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 09:24Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation. The overall refined nickel output has increased slightly due to the stable production rhythm of leading enterprises and the planned launch of new production capacity. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills have increased production due to improved profits, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles have continued to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, nickel prices have declined, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices. Both domestic and overseas LME inventories have decreased. Technically, the position has rebounded with rising prices, and the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to hold previous long positions, with a reference range of 122,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 123,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,750 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5405 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 105 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 91,963 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,342 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 25,674 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 5,527 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 209,844 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 26,439 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 504 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,998 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,773 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 132 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 124,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,900 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 124,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,600 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 174.22 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1.18 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 65.92 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,259.82 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 53.97 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.08 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 400 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21,018.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 83.59 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.55 million tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 169.81 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.59 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.68 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 million tons [2] 6. Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, and the new order index rose to 49.5. The non - manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerated pace. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded year - on - year to 2.9%, in line with expectations. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [2]