瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The manufacturing sentiment in China has improved, with the official manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.4 in August, and the new order index rising to 49.5. The non - manufacturing sector is expanding at an accelerated pace. The inflation in the US has rebounded, and the tariff impact is still controllable. In the stainless - steel industry, on the supply side, steel mills' production profits have improved significantly, and it is expected that the output in August will increase. On the demand side, there are optimistic expectations for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", and domestic fiscal investment policies are favorable. The market procurement intention has recovered, and the domestic market is in a de - stocking trend with stable spot premiums. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise indicates a weakening of the bearish atmosphere, and the price has broken through the MA10. It is recommended to either wait and see or take a short - term and lightly - weighted long position [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,950 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,490 lots, a decrease of 2,563 lots; the main contract position is 100,563 lots, a decrease of 21,640 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 99,418 tons, a decrease of 354 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled and trimmed stainless - steel in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of 304 scrap stainless - steel in Wuxi is 9,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons. The daily SMM1 nickel spot price is 124,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,900 yuan; the national average daily price of 7 - 10% nickel - iron is 950 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 586,800 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, an increase of 4.84168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 24,700 units, a decrease of 2,100 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, a decrease of 1,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 49.4, and the new order index rose to 49.5. The non - manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerated pace. The inflation in the US in July rebounded, and the tariff impact was controllable. The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of the PNBP policy, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production of Indonesian nickel - iron has increased significantly [2]