Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 09:24Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of a decrease in production is high. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, with a slight increasing trend in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizer is mainly for phased replenishment, and the enterprise operating rate has declined. Affected by policies, the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate is limited, but there is an expectation of an increase starting from the 4th. Domestic demand progresses slowly, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly. Although the inventory of a few enterprises has decreased slightly due to export orders and device maintenance, the total inventory still shows an increase. This week, although some enterprises have export orders, due to environmental protection restrictions on shipping, the enterprise inventory is still expected to increase. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1780 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 220,274 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 32,056 lots, an increase of 7,422 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 7,205 lots, an increase of 732 lots [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei and Henan remain unchanged at 1730 yuan/ton and 1720 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Jiangsu is 1730 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Anhui is 1740 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 437.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton; FOB China's main port is 435 dollars/ton, a decrease of 12.5 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,085,800 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.39%, a decrease of 1.6%; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 570,000 tons, an increase of 500,000 tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,052,080 tons, an increase of 20,740 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 39.22%, a decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.5%, an increase of 11.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4,221,200 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,000 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons [2] Industry News - As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,085,800 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 6.05%. As of August 28, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 19.76%. As of August 28, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,349,200 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 82.39%, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]