Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 09:24Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall Market: The rapeseed and related product markets are influenced by international trade relations, with recent market fluctuations increasing. Short - term trading is recommended. The market is also affected by factors such as supply and demand, harvest conditions, and trade policies [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: In the international market, the expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply - side pressure, but the reduction in planting area provides support. Domestically, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts demand. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: Internationally, there are supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong export data for Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9801 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2513 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 6041 yuan/ton, down 369 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 166 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 107 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 263,549 lots, down 52 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 404,322 lots, down 9,848 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holding for rapeseed oil is 5,797 lots, down 1,541 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holding for rapeseed meal is - 22,321 lots, down 8,632 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,887 sheets, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 4,750 sheets, up 104 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9945 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7858.15 yuan/ton, down 95.37 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 79 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 87 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Substitute Prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Price Differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast in China is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.05 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.6 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.9 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.4 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons, down 0.95 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 2.79 million tons, down 0.45 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.64%, up 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.65%, up 0.21%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 11.83%, up 0.23%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 11.83%, up 0.23% [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.15%, down 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.84%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.44%, up 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.37%, up 0.11% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 29, ICE rapeseed futures fell to a nearly five - month low due to fund long - position liquidation and the start of the Canadian rapeseed harvest. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed down 9.30 Canadian dollars at 626.40 Canadian dollars per ton, hitting a low of 621.70 Canadian dollars since April 7 [2]. - The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total production of 4.246 billion bushels. The deviation from the USDA forecast is small, indicating stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - International supply pressure exists, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. Domestically, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - Internationally, there are supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong export data for Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens long - term supply [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade relations [2].