瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests to temporarily observe or go long with a light position at low prices. The macro - level shows that China's manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded, and the US core PCE price index in July also rose as expected. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the processing fee for zinc ore has continued to rise. The profit of smelters has been further repaired, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, downstream is at the end of the off - season, with stable and rising operating rates of processing enterprises. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the spot premium has stabilized at a low level. The overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting the zinc price. Technically, the position has increased while the price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the support level at 22,000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,175 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,814 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 227,829 hands, up 4,138 hands; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 13,578 hands, down 2,168 hands; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 37,957 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 85,980 tons, up 8,142 tons; the LME inventory is 56,500 tons, down 1,500 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,100 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,140 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 75 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 6.12 US dollars/ton, up 9.42 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,740 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 129,900 tons, up 5,300 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 11.91%, down 0.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 11.87%, down 0.17%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.71%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.57%, down 0.01% [3] 3.7行业消息 - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, the new order index rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated its expansion. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [3]