瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing market demand. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.35%. Market sentiment was weak, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand, while inventory continued to rise. Overall, the steel market was mixed, with significant technical pressure, and the mainstream positions increased short positions, leading to weak futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were operating at low levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,115.00 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the position volume was 1,633,714 lots, up 203,931 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 211,528 lots, down 27,137 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 211,538 tons, up 12,041 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 188 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,220.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 155.00 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 760.00 yuan/wet ton, down 18.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 137.63 million tons, down 821,800 tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.00%, down 0.27 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2836 million tons, up 122,700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2056 million tons, up 59,100 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 48.35%, up 1.30 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.6962 million tons, down 49,100 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.5377 million tons, up 212,600 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 353,000 tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.658 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.34, down 0.25. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 5.41 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 4.842 million square meters. The unsold housing area was 40.536 million square meters, up 285,000 square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - Since August, 13 domestic steel mills have released maintenance information. Shougang Jingtang plans to shut down a 5500m³ blast furnace from August 31 to September 3, about 48,000 tons of hot metal production will be affected. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4013 million tons, down 6,200 tons from the previous week [2]