Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 09:24Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall production of methanol has slightly increased as the output from restored capacities is more than the loss from maintenance and production cuts. The inventory of inland enterprises has increased due to the start of a new long - term contract in the northwest region and the resumption of some maintenance projects. The port inventory has accelerated to accumulate significantly, and although the arrival of foreign vessels has slightly decreased this week, it remains at a high level. The downstream apparent demand has no obvious improvement expectation, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand side has seen an increase in the operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins due to the restart of the Sinopec Zhongyuan Ethylene olefin plant, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2325 - 2400 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2385 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the 1 - 5 spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 799308 lots, a decrease of 21711 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 111203 lots, an increase of 3946 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9516, a decrease of 230 [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2045 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 256 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 291 euros/ton, up 3 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 66 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.02 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 0.03 US dollars [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The inventory in East China ports is 88.9 tons, an increase of 18.28 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.03 tons, an increase of 4.05 tons. The import profit of methanol is 5.65 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.51 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 333400 tons, an increase of 22600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.84%, an increase of 0.93% [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.04%, unchanged; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.02%, unchanged; the operating rate of acetic acid is 85.24%, a decrease of 3.77%; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.54%, unchanged; the operating rate of olefins is 85.35%, an increase of 0.76%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.85%, an increase of 0.77%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.13%, an increase of 0.21%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.49%, a decrease of 0.54%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.48%, a decrease of 0.55% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 27, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 33.34 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 7.27%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises is 21.70 tons, an increase of 0.96 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.64%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 129.93 tons, an increase of 22.33 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China has increased. The domestic methanol production has slightly increased. As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 86.41%, a year - on - year increase of 0.71% [3].