Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 09:32Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook is bearish, putting overall pressure on the market, but the price is at a historically low level, limiting the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 [3]. - This week, the restart of devices such as Zhongtai and Taishu Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization rate. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand [3]. - India's anti - dumping investigation on PVC will significantly increase the anti - dumping duty on Chinese PVC, and the policy is expected to be implemented as early as September [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4894 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume is 767,794 lots, down 38,602 lots; the open interest is 1,199,736 lots, up 4,503 lots [3]. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 920,712 lots, up 5,834 lots; the sell order volume is 1,034,431 lots, down 2,973 lots; the net buy order volume is - 113,719 lots, up 8,807 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 5040 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 4905 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and South China are 4721.92 yuan/ton (down 8.08 yuan) and 4801.88 yuan/ton (down 22.5 yuan) respectively [3]. - The CIF prices of PVC in China, Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Northwest Europe are 710 dollars/ton, 670 dollars/ton, and 690 dollars/ton respectively, all unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2573.33 yuan/ton (down 16.67 yuan), and 2373 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) respectively [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The middle - prices of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 503 dollars/ton (down 18 dollars) and 539 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars) respectively; the middle - prices of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars) and 201 dollars/ton (up 12 dollars) respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly overall PVC operating rate is 76.02%, down 1.59%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, and the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is down 6.64% [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 772,500 tons, up 4,400 tons; the social inventory of ethylene - based PVC is 521,900 tons, up 13,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in East China is 463,600 tons, up 13,400 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 58,300 tons, up 500 tons [3]. - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26; the cumulative new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.2%, down 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.08%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 14.53%, down 0.41%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.54%, down 0.39% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 1, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 23 to 29, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [3]. - As of August 28, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.10% month - on - month to 896,300 tons. Last week, PVC production decreased by 2.05% to 455,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% to 76.02%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 42.6%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 33.61%, and the profile operating rate increased by 4.95% to 42.6% [3].