原油震荡偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ plans to increase daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels in September, and there is a possibility of further production increases in the fourth quarter. With the ongoing geopolitical issues such as the US warning to Russia and the continuous attacks between Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][29]. 3. Summary of Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review The crude oil market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The SC2510 contract opened at 494, reached a high of 500, a low of 478, and closed at 485, with a weekly decline of 8.4 or 1.70% [3]. 3.2 Price Influence Factor Analysis - OPEC: In July 2025, OPEC+ total crude oil production averaged 41.94 million barrels per day, an increase of 335,000 barrels per day compared to June. OPEC+ has been increasing production for four consecutive months since April, with a cumulative increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day. On August 3, OPEC+ decided to further increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing the 2.2 million barrels per day supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule. If the planned September production increase is implemented, the cumulative increase since April will reach 2.47 million barrels per day, close to 2.5% of global demand [5][6]. - Russia: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In July 2025, Russia's oil production increased by 98,000 barrels per day to 9.12 million barrels per day, 67,000 barrels per day higher than the OPEC+ plan. Traders expect India to increase its Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September compared to August. From January - May 2025, Russia's crude oil exports to China were 40.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%. Russia plans to increase its annual crude oil supply to China to over 100 million tons, a growth of about 15% [7]. - US: As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.439 million barrels per day, an increase of 57,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 and is expected to be 13.28 million barrels per day in 2026. The expected growth in US crude oil demand in 2025 is 130,000 barrels per day, and in 2026 it is 30,000 barrels per day [11]. - Supply from the Americas: OPEC has lowered its supply growth forecast for non - OPEC+ oil - producing countries, expecting an increase of about 630,000 barrels per day in 2026. The IEA has raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.5 million barrels per day, mainly due to OPEC+'s production increase decision. The EIA expects global oil production to be 105.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [17]. - Inventory: As of April 2025, OECD's crude oil and liquid commercial inventories were 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared to the same period last year. As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US total crude oil inventory was 822 million barrels, a decrease of 1.616 million barrels from the previous week [18]. - Consumption: OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and adjusts the 2026 forecast from 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA has lowered its 2025 demand growth forecast to 680,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.88 million barrels per day, a decrease of 328,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 94.60%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy OPEC+ plans to increase daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels in September, and there is a possibility of further production increases in the fourth quarter. With the ongoing geopolitical issues such as the US warning to Russia and the continuous attacks between Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][29].