碳酸锂周报：波动仍有放大可能-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Lithium spodumene production can make up for the gap, and the current overall supply shows no obvious reduction. The downstream production schedule is acceptable, but after the previous price decline, the downstream's purchasing willingness is low recently due to active replenishment. The macro - sentiment is volatile. It is recommended to focus on the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [4][78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Conduct interval operations, appropriately buy options for protection, and buy straddle options. The operating range is 70,000 - 90,000 [4][78]. 3.2 Market Review of Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 3.06%. The trading volume reached 3.21 million lots (- 1.11 million), and the open interest reached 346,600 lots (- 15,700). The basis was at a premium of 2,470 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%, and lithium mica production was 16,100 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. The import volume of lithium concentrate rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [11][15]. 3.3.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [18]. 3.3.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. In July, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [24][26]. 3.3.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In September, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 37%, and the production was 24,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. In July, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,248 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 86.3% [34]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 76,334 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [37]. 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,667 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. In July, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [38]. 3.4.3 Ternary Precursors - In September, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 43%, and the production was 81,490 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. In July, the export volume increased [42]. 3.4.4 Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In September, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the production was 11,887 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 67%, and the production was 12,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 42% [43]. 3.4.5 Electrolyte - In September, the electrolyte production was 191,480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 35.0%. In July, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [50]. 3.5 Terminal Demand 3.5.1 Power Batteries - In July, the production of power batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8%. The installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [53]. 3.5.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.243 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. The sales volume was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [56]. 3.5.3 Energy Storage - In September, the production of energy - storage batteries was 50.67 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 42.3%. In July, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.83 GW, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 37.9% and a year - on - year increase of 60.1% [61]. 3.5.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 25.52 million, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [64]. 3.6 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by 27 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica dropped by 45 yuan/ton [68]. 3.7 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 407 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,510 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 1,293 tons, and other inventories decreased by 1,810 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 853 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 215 tons [74][75].