牛市进程：十大观察指标

Group 1: Macro Indicators - The market capitalization to GDP ratio is currently at 85.6%, indicating room for improvement compared to historical peaks[4] - The market capitalization to household deposits ratio stands at 73.2%, suggesting potential for growth[4] - The change in market capitalization relative to GDP during this bull market is 18.5%, which is relatively low compared to past bull markets[4] Group 2: Trading Activity - The trading volume increased from 1.6 trillion to a peak of 3.19 trillion, representing a doubling in volume[5] - The maximum turnover rate reached 2.76%, an increase of 0.99% from the starting point, indicating potential for further growth[5] - The trading congestion ratio peaked at 39.3%, up 11.5% from the starting point, which is considered high[5] Group 3: Risk and Profitability - The drawdown risk is currently at 5.9%, significantly lower than previous bull markets which were above 10%[6] - The profit-loss ratio is at 2.8, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario, although there is still room for improvement compared to the 2014-2015 period[6] Group 4: Capital Inflows - The margin financing balance reached 2.24 trillion, a 21% increase from the starting point of 1.85 trillion[7] - The number of new accounts opened during this bull market peaked at 196.4 million, showing limited growth compared to previous bull markets[7] - The issuance of equity funds has a ratio of 1.1 compared to the starting month, which is relatively low compared to past bull markets[7] Group 5: Valuation Comparisons - The equity risk premium (ERP) has decreased by 1.58% during this bull market, which is considered a low decline compared to historical data[11] - The equity-bond yield spread has decreased by 1.08%, but remains at a relatively high level compared to previous periods[11]