Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.89%. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, inventory increases, and steel prices are still under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate showed a weak operation, with a daily decline of 1.58%. The demand for hot - rolled coils has certain resilience, providing support for prices. However, concerns about external demand remain, and the supply contraction is difficult to sustain. It is expected to continue the weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore weakened again, with a daily decline of 2.67%. The demand for iron ore continues to weaken, while the supply is stable. The ore fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore valuation is relatively high. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price will continue the weak oscillation operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [6]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales exceeded 700,000 vehicles, and it is almost certain that the annual sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [7]. - From January to August 2025, nearly 110 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products were announced, involving various steel products [8]. 2. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the national average price was 3,300 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. For hot - rolled coil plate, the Shanghai price was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,300 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the national average price was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 765 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 788 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.11 yuan, down 0.05 yuan; from Brazil was 24.51 yuan, up 0.14 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.81, down 0.09, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 103.60, down 0.30 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,115 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.89%, the trading volume was 1,342,816, an increase of 534,144, and the open interest was 1,633,714, an increase of 578,004 [11]. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil plate futures was 3,303 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.58%, the trading volume was 587,250, an increase of 59,364, and the open interest was 1,195,204, an increase of 28,571 [11]. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 766.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.67%, the trading volume was 393,789, an increase of 178,541, and the open interest was 453,950, a decrease of 19,658 [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (such as rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil plate inventory, national 45 - port iron ore inventory, etc.), steel mill production (such as 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace opening rate, 87 - independent electric furnace opening rate, etc.) [13][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, supply and demand both increased. The weekly output increased by 59,100 tons, and demand improved with a weekly increase of 94,100 tons in apparent demand. However, high - frequency daily transactions were sluggish. With accumulated industrial contradictions and increasing inventory, it is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [34]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, supply and demand were stable. The weekly output decreased by 5,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 5,500 tons. Although there is demand resilience, external demand concerns remain, and it is expected to continue the weakening trend in oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, supply and demand both weakened. Steel mill production declined, and ore demand is expected to fall. The domestic port ore arrival increased, and overseas supply remained high. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price will continue the weak oscillation operation [35].
钢材、铁矿石日报：产业担忧发酵，钢矿弱势下行-20250901
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-01 10:24