美联储独立性受到挑战，黄金走势尚需观察

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] Core Viewpoints - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being challenged, and if Trump's policies fail to boost the US economy effectively, the probability of the US entering stagflation will increase, which may further weaken the US's competitiveness and push up the price of US gold. Currently, US gold is around the key level of 3,500, and its further trend needs continuous observation [2] - Recent economic data shows that the US economy remains resilient. If there are significant interest rate cuts, the probability of rising inflation will increase, and the US economy and the US dollar will face the risk of further capital outflows. At that time, safe-haven assets will strengthen [3] - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Due to the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact on the Fed's independence, the US dollar index has been weakening, leading to a significant appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate. However, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has not had a continuous impact on precious metals, and the short-term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate are limited [4] - The market believes that a September interest rate cut is highly likely, and in the future, the market will focus on the magnitude of the rate cut. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold, causing US gold to rise again. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may still be synchronized and need continuous observation [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Concerns about the Fed's independence have boosted the price of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may be synchronized, but the upward trend of silver is affected by the fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, sued President Trump over his attempt to fire her. The US second-quarter GDP and core PCE price index data were released, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned the interview process for the Fed chair position [13][15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US economic data shows high resilience, with positive growth in GDP, retail sales, and core PCE price index, although there are some weaknesses in non-manufacturing and consumption [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and the US and the EU have reached a new trade agreement. The US may also increase tariffs on chips and semiconductors [20] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Initial jobless claims decreased, and the service industry PMI reached a new high. The price of crude oil was affected by production cuts, and the prices of domestic and foreign copper showed different trends. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September, high-risk preference assets may strengthen [21] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. The weakening of the US dollar has led to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but its impact on gold is limited [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market believes a September interest rate cut is likely, and the focus will be on the rate cut magnitude. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver need continuous observation [30]