美联储9月降息临近，金价强势运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed an upward trend. New York gold rose from $3,400 to the $3,500 mark, London gold reached the $3,450 mark, and Shanghai gold touched the 790 yuan mark. The rise was largely driven by Fed Chairman Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, but there is still a divergence on whether there will be 2 or 3 rate cuts this year. Non - farm payrolls and inflation data before the September Fed meeting should be continuously monitored [3][27]. - Last week, the upward trend of the US stock market slowed down, especially the Nasdaq index represented by technology stocks, which showed a double - top trend technically. This increased the market's risk - aversion demand and raised the risk - aversion premium of precious metals [3][27]. - Technically, New York gold has broken through the upper limit of the trading range since the second quarter with strong upward momentum; London gold is still within the trading range, and the pressure at the upper limit of the range should be continuously monitored; Shanghai gold is relatively weak due to the appreciation and appreciation expectation of the RMB. Overall, precious metals are on the rise, silver is strong, and the gold - silver ratio is in a downward trend [3][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Weekly Trend: No detailed description provided, only mentioned relevant charts [7]. - Indicator Price Changes: From August 22 to August 29, COMEX gold rose from $3,417.20 to $3,516.10, a 2.89% increase; COMEX silver rose from $38.88 to $40.75, a 4.81% increase; SHFE gold futures rose from 773.40 yuan to 785.12 yuan, a 1.52% increase; SHFE silver futures rose from 9,192.00 yuan to 9,386.00 yuan, a 2.11% increase. The US dollar index rose 0.14%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell 0.69%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield fell 0.03, the S&P 500 fell 0.10%, and the US crude oil continuous contract rose 0.38%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 1.83%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 0.58%. The SPDR gold ETF increased by 20.91, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 4.66 [8]. 3.2 Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Benefit Gold Prices - Last week, the gold price trended upward, while the US dollar index and US Treasury yields trended downward. The US stock market's upward trend slowed down, especially the Nasdaq, which was weak and showed a double - top trend [12][13]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to August 26 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 490 contracts, short positions changed by - 1,231 contracts, and net long positions changed by 1,721 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose last week, with silver rising more, and the gold - silver ratio showed a downward trend. The expectation of interest rate cuts increased last week, the yield of the 2 - year US Treasury bond declined significantly, and the 10 - 2 spread widened [18][21][25]. 3.4 Conclusion Same as the core viewpoints [3][27]