有色日报：有色分化，铜维持强势-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Copper: The Shanghai copper futures increased in volume and price, approaching the 80,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. After the Jackson Hole meeting, gold, silver, and copper all rose, with an accelerating upward trend since Friday. The approaching Fed's September interest rate meeting and the high - level volatility of domestic and foreign equity markets, along with the decline of domestic - priced commodities, led to capital rotation. In the industrial aspect, with the arrival of the peak season in the domestic market, downstream demand is expected to continue to strengthen, and copper prices are expected to maintain a strong trend [4]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum futures decreased in volume and price, with the main contract price breaking below the 20,600 RMB mark during the session. The general decline of the black - metal sector put pressure on aluminum, resulting in a significant divergence between copper and aluminum. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly on Monday. With the arrival of the peak season, industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - Nickel: The nickel price fluctuated upward, and the trading volume also increased. The nickel market showed strong performance in the context of the divergence in the non - ferrous sector. However, the oversupply of nickel elements continued to put pressure on the futures price. Technically, the main contract price broke through the 122,000 RMB mark, with strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the high level in late July [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On September 1st, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 140,400 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons compared to the 25th and an increase of 12,500 tons compared to the 28th [8]. - Aluminum: On September 1st, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 616,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared to the 25th and an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the 28th [9]. - Nickel: On September 1st, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2510 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 RMB/ton, with a price of 125,520 RMB/ton; that of Russian nickel was +450 RMB/ton, with a price of 123,770 RMB/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 RMB/ton, with a price of 126,020 RMB/ton; and that of nickel beans was +2,550 RMB/ton, with a price of 125,870 RMB/ton [10]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as the copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper canceled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - Aluminum: The report contains charts of the aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - Nickel: The report presents charts of the nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].