Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the overall market will maintain a weak oscillation. Although downstream demand is expected to improve marginally and inventory is likely to decline, production will also increase. As the apparent demand is unlikely to meet the market's optimistic expectations, there is a significant risk that the high expectations will not be fulfilled. It is recommended to engage in short - term trading and sell high in the unilateral strategy, and consider short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the 10 - contract in the arbitrage strategy [81][92]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Main Views - Supply: Due to good production profits, the overall steel output has changed little, remaining volatile in the past quarter. The output of the five major varieties has fluctuated between 8.5 million and 9 million tons per week, and the rebar output has remained around 2.2 million tons per week, while the hot - rolled coil output has recently declined. With the arrival of the consumption peak season and the end of the parade, the overall output is expected to rise [8][81]. - Demand: The apparent demand for rebar has increased month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coil has decreased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties has rebounded. Recently, the apparent demand for plates has declined from a high level. Seasonally, with the end of the summer heat, the apparent demand is expected to recover, but it is still at a five - year low, similar to the same period last year. It is expected that there will be no significant year - on - year increase in demand [8][81]. - Inventory: The steel mill inventory has decreased briefly, while the social inventory has been rising. The inventory is being transferred from steel mills to downstream, indicating that steel mills are not optimistic about the future market. The total inventory of the five major varieties has rebounded and is close to last year's level. Currently, the inventory pressure is not high, and it is expected to continue to decline during the consumption peak season. However, inventory is not the main contradiction but a factor that triggers a negative feedback loop in prices [8][81]. - Price and Market: The previous price increase was mainly due to "anti - involution" trading, and the market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. According to past rules, the demand expectations for the consumption peak season have been priced in the early - August prices. Although demand will improve in September, it still lags far behind the optimistic expectations at the previous price peak [8][81]. 2. Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Markets - In the past month, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, with the decline of rebar being more significant and that of hot - rolled coil being smaller. The rebar basis has widened, mainly because the decline of futures prices is greater than that of spot prices. The hot - rolled coil basis has also widened slightly, indicating that hot - rolled coil has been relatively stronger than rebar recently. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of rebar has been falling and has entered a range where it is possible to go long on the spread between the 10 - and 01 - contracts. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of hot - rolled coil has remained fluctuating around zero. The spread of the 10 - contract between hot - rolled coil and rebar is high and may correct significantly in the future [12][15][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis of Steel - Supply: The decline in production in July was mainly due to the off - season of downstream consumption in summer, when steel mills actively reduced production. The crude steel output has gradually recovered to a high level in the same period. The weekly output of steel has increased slightly month - on - month. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both increased recently, and the total output of the five major varieties has also risen. After the end of the parade - related production restrictions, the production recovery is expected to accelerate. The output of independent electric arc furnaces remains relatively high, with the output of independent electric arc furnace rebar at a multi - year peak, and the operating rate and capacity utilization rate both remaining high. The iron - water output is basically flat and remains at a relatively high level. After the end of the parade - related restrictions, the iron - water output is expected to continue to increase [41][49][66]. - Demand: The apparent demand for building materials has improved month - on - month, while the demand for medium - thick plates has declined from a high level. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both improved, but the total demand for rebar and the five major steel varieties is still at a five - year low. In July, steel exports rebounded month - on - month, and the export volume of steel billets increased significantly. The increase in exports is expected to be mainly driven by the high - speed growth of steel billet exports, and the trade war has not affected steel and steel billet exports [55][57][58]. - Profit: The decline in gross profit is mainly because the recent increase in the spot prices of coking coal and coke is significantly greater than that of rebar. After a brief profit recovery, the profits of short - process steel mills in various regions have declined [62][68]. - Inventory: The inventory of major steel products in steel mills has decreased month - on - month, with the rebar inventory in steel mills starting to decline and the inventory of other varieties continuing to increase, resulting in a slight decrease in the total steel mill inventory. The social inventory of major steel products has been increasing continuously, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil has been rising rapidly. The rebar inventory and the total inventory of the five major varieties have increased rapidly, while the overall inventory of upstream steel mills has declined, indicating that upstream steel mills are not optimistic about future prices and are transferring inventory to downstream [70][73][75]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - Market Outlook: The Langer Steel PMI index shows short - term pressure. The price peak usually precedes the PMI index peak. The PMI index reflects industry demand and is similar to the trend of social inventory. From August to September each year, the PMI index reaches its peak and then declines, indicating that the market is actually weak when downstream consumption improves. Currently, the index has been at 49.8 for two consecutive months and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. Historically, the probability of price decline is high in May, August, and September, and the probability of price increase is high in December, January, and July [82][84][88]. - Investment Opportunities: In the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to engage in short - term trading and sell high. In the arbitrage strategy, short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the 10 - contract can be considered. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is currently low and may rise in the future, presenting a good long - position opportunity. The ratio of rebar to coke has declined significantly and may continue to decline, but in the short term, there may be a rebound in the rebar/coke ratio [38][92].
螺纹热卷9月报：供应存回升预期，下游需求预期或难兑现-20250901
Shan Jin Qi Huo·2025-09-01 10:23