冠通期货：2025年9月石化化板块月度报告-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings provided in the content. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the global oil surplus is expected to intensify in Q4. The end of the consumption peak season, poor US non - farm employment, and global trade wars have led to weakening crude oil demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Asphalt - In September, asphalt supply and demand are expected to increase. The cost - side support is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil or conduct range trading [3][62]. PVC - PVC supply is high, exports are expected to weaken, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although September is the traditional peak season, the improvement is limited. It is expected to decline and recommended to short on rallies [3][111]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin production remains high, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally in September. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate. Range trading is recommended [3][154]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Core View - Crude oil supply and demand are weakening. OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and demand is affected by factors such as the end of the consumption peak season and poor non - farm employment. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Investment Strategy - Short on rallies [10]. Market Review - In August, domestic crude oil prices fell. The price rose in late July due to geopolitical factors and then declined due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the US economy [14]. Position and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 19, WTI non - commercial net long positions increased slightly compared to the previous week but decreased significantly compared to the end of July. As of August 27, Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts increased compared to the end of July but remained at a low level [18]. Production - OPEC's June production decreased, while July production increased. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September. US crude oil production increased in the week of August 22 [22]. Drilling Rigs - In August, the number of US oil drilling rigs continued to decrease and stabilized recently. As of August 22, it was 411, 4 less than in the week of July 25 [26]. Imports and Exports - As of August 22, US crude oil imports decreased, and exports also decreased. Imports were at a neutral - low level, and exports were at a neutral - high level [30]. China's Processing and Imports - China's July crude oil processing volume increased month - on - month and was at a high level in the same period over the years. Imports increased month - on - month and were at a neutral - high level in the same period [34]. US Economic Data - In August, US inflation data showed different trends. CPI remained stable, PPI increased significantly, and PCE inflation was in line with expectations [38]. Crack Spreads - In August, US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased [42]. Demand - EIA and other institutions have different forecasts for global oil supply and demand. US gasoline and diesel demand increased week - on - week [46]. Inventory - As of August 22, US crude oil, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories changed. Crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased [50][54]. Geopolitical Risks - There are ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, which may affect the oil market [56]. Asphalt Core View - Supply and demand are expected to increase in September. The cost - side support is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil or conduct range trading [62]. Market Review - In August, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio increased, and the asphalt basis fell to a neutral level [70][73]. Production and Consumption - July asphalt production and apparent consumption increased. As of August 29, the national asphalt shipment volume increased [81][85]. Supply and Profit - In August, the asphalt operating rate decreased and was at a low level in the same period. The spot - end profit loss in Shandong Province narrowed slightly [89]. Downstream - From January to July, road transportation investment and national highway construction investment decreased year - on - year. As of August 29, the downstream operating rate was mostly stable [101][106]. PVC Core View - Supply is high, exports are expected to weaken, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although September is the traditional peak season, the improvement is limited. It is expected to decline and recommended to short on rallies [111]. Market Review - There is no clear market review information provided. Upstream - In August, calcium carbide prices fell and then were expected to rise slightly. The calcium carbide operating rate increased slightly but remained low, and losses increased. The semi - coke operating rate rose, and prices increased, but losses did not narrow [120]. Production - July PVC production increased, and the maintenance loss also increased [124]. Operating Rate - As of August 29, the PVC operating rate decreased to 76.02% but remained at a relatively high level in the same period [128]. Imports and Exports - In July, PVC imports increased, and exports decreased compared to the previous month but remained at a high level in the same period. India's anti - dumping tax is expected to weaken China's PVC exports in the second half of the year [135]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. As of August 31, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period [139]. Downstream Operating Rate - As of August 29, the PVC downstream average operating rate decreased to 42.60% and was at a low level in the same period [144]. Inventory - As of August 28, PVC social inventory increased and remained high [148]. Polyolefins Core View - In September, production remains high, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate. Range trading is recommended [154]. Market Review - Futures prices fell, and spot prices were stable. The basis of plastics and PP rebounded slightly but remained at a low level [165][169]. Production - In July, PE and PP production increased, with high - level maintenance for PP [174][181]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of PE and PP increased recently and were at a neutral level [178][185]. Imports and Exports - In July, PE imports decreased, and exports increased. PP imports decreased, and exports increased. The net imports of both are expected to decline [192][198]. Downstream - From January to July, the cumulative production of plastic products increased, and the export amount decreased slightly. As of August 29, the downstream operating rates of PE and PP increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period [202][206]. Inventory - As of August 29, petrochemical inventory decreased and was at a neutral level in the same period [210]. Profit - In August, coal - based and oil - based PE profits changed. Coal - based PP was profitable, while other processes were mostly in losses [215].