9月1日风险管理日报：镍、不锈钢：受印尼暴乱罢工情绪影响上行-20250901

Report Overview - The report is titled "Nickel & Stainless Steel: Upward Movement Affected by Indonesian Riot and Strike Sentiment" and is a risk management daily report on September 1st, compiled by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was strong, mainly affected by the weekend riots in Indonesia, which increased the uncertainty sentiment on the supply side. The stainless steel also showed strength, with spot prices generally rising and inventory being reduced. The market is expected to have upward momentum as it approaches the peak season in September and October [4]. - Macro - level factors such as the September interest - rate cut expectation and the movement of the US dollar index should be continuously monitored. The ongoing riots and strikes in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment, and the subsequent development needs attention [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai Nickel: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - Stainless Steel: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - Inventory Management: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, strategies include selling Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - Procurement Management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include buying Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: Similar to nickel, when the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: When worried about rising raw material prices for future production procurement, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts), sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - side: In Indonesia, the first - phase benchmark price in September is expected to be slightly lowered, but the premium remains firm. In the Philippines, there was rainfall in some mining areas during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited impact. Nickel iron prices remained firm, and the supply side continued to hold up prices [4]. - Demand - side: In the new energy sector, salt factories are relatively strong, the MHP market is in short supply, and new energy vehicle sales are continuously strong. Stainless steel is approaching the peak season in September and October, with demand recovering and having upward momentum [4]. Macro and Market Sentiment - Macro - level factors include the September interest - rate cut expectation and the movement of the US dollar index. The riots and strikes in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment, although there is no actual impact reported from the industrial park yet [5]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand, there is an increased expectation of a September interest - rate cut, and the riots in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment [6]. - Negative Factors: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the seasonal inventory of nickel ore is rising, there are still Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [6]. Market Data - Nickel Futures: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,750 yuan/ton or 1%. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,405 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 105 US dollars/ton or 0.61% [7]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,470 tons, a decrease of 1,402 tons compared to the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 209,844 tons, an increase of 300 tons. The stainless steel social inventory is 928,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons [11][12].