甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250901

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 1, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about methanol price decline. Strategy: Short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits, with a 25% hedging ratio and recommended entry interval of 2250 - 2350; buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent price drops, with a 50% hedging ratio; sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a 45 - 60% hedging ratio [3] Procurement Management - Situation: Low procurement standing inventory, want to purchase according to order situation. Strategy: Buy methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and recommended entry interval of 2450 - 2550; sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5 continuous reverse - spread logic, main contradiction lies in port pressure and high shipments from Iran. As of now, Iran's August shipments are around 1.04 million tons, breaking historical highs, causing methanol 1 - 5 to decline. The 01 contract will face port pressure, while the 05 contract may be more affected by Iran's shutdown. Suggest to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options, and follow up on Iran's shipments and port pick - ups [4] Group 5: Negative Factors - This week, it is expected that the arrival of foreign vessels at ports will be scattered and the arrival volume will be sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [4]