Huachuang Securities·2025-09-01 11:13Investment Strategy - The global oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the global carbon neutrality process has accelerated, resulting in a significant decrease in upstream capital expenditure, which was $351 billion in 2021, down nearly 22% from the 2014 peak. The capital expenditure is expected to continue to shrink as major energy companies face pressure from policies and the need for transformation [8][24][25] - The report suggests focusing on companies that benefit from high oil prices and increased capital expenditure, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and Sinopec [9][24] Oil Market - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities, which have led to a decrease in Russian refining capacity. Brent crude oil is priced at $67.62 per barrel, down 0.43% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil is at $64.16 per barrel, up 1.63% week-on-week [9][27][28] - OPEC's unexpected speed in reducing production and the resilience of demand, supported by recent GDP growth forecasts from the World Bank and IMF, suggest that oil prices may continue to fluctuate [9][24] Coal Market - The thermal coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to weakened downstream demand. The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 695 yuan per ton, down 1.14% week-on-week. The total inventory at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim is reported at 23.08 million tons, down 0.79% [10][11] - The report highlights that domestic coal production is being maintained at normal levels, but some areas are affected by rainfall, leading to supply tightness. The demand from power plants remains stable, but the cement market is weak [10][11] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is currently in a stalemate, with the price of coking coal remaining stable at 1,610 yuan per ton. The report notes that safety inspections are tightening, limiting the supply of coking coal, while steel mills are cautious about purchasing due to weak market conditions [13][14] - The report suggests focusing on coking coal producers with strong resource capabilities, such as Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from price increases [14] Natural Gas Market - The report mentions the potential restart of the Datang Group's coal-to-gas project in Liaoning, which is the largest single investment project in Fuxin's history. The average price of natural gas in the U.S. is $2.82 per million British thermal units, up 1.3% week-on-week [15][16] - European natural gas prices are also rising, with the UK IPE natural gas price at $10.95 per million British thermal units, up 2.0% week-on-week [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services industry is expected to maintain its prosperity due to government policies supporting energy security. The total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies is projected to be 583.3 billion yuan in 2023, with CNOOC showing a compound growth rate of 13.1% [18][19] - The global active rig count is reported at 1,621, with a slight increase in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a stable outlook for the oilfield services sector [18][19]