光期能化：PVC策略月报-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, the PVC fundamentals still face pressure, with high inventory levels, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about a new round of speculative expectations brought by unexpected policies [2] Summary by Directory Supply:检修计划增加有限，预计产量维持高位 - In early August, many production enterprises resumed operations after maintenance, leading to a decrease in loss volume compared to July. It is expected that maintenance in September will be high at the beginning and low at the end, and the production volume will remain at a high level with fluctuations [2][5] - The operating rate increased slightly month - on - month. The 8 - month production volume increased by 60,000 tons, all from ethylene - based plants, and it is expected to remain at a high level with fluctuations subsequently [19] Demand:房地产施工将逐步回升，预计管材和型材开工增加 - In August, the downstream operating rate recovered but decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected to remain stable in September. The real estate transactions are fluctuating at a low level. Although the real estate construction will recover, it is still weak overall, providing limited support for the demand of PVC downstream pipes and profiles. With India imposing higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese PVC, exports are expected to decline [2][21][34] - In August, downstream enterprises made small - scale stockpiling, and as the September delivery approached, traders were actively trading [28] Inventory:供需压力仍在，总库存高位震荡 - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. As the basis weakened significantly, refinery inventories flowed into the social market, leading to an increase in total inventory. The warehouse receipts also increased rapidly. In September, domestic demand is expected to recover, but exports are expected to decline, and the fundamental pressure remains high. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level with limited changes [2][44] Spread:预计基差逐步走强 - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. As the delivery approaches, the near - month contract has a relatively large decline [54] Profit:电石法和乙烯法利润表现偏弱 - The profit performance of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weak [58]