2025年9月橡胶策略报告-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the rubber main - producing areas enter the peak production season, and abnormal weather can intensify rubber price fluctuations. The import volume growth of rubber is limited due to slightly lower dry content and weather disturbances. [106] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period provides some demand support. After the parade, the tire manufacturers in Shandong may see a rebound in production, but high finished - product inventories limit the recovery elasticity. Tire exports may have a small increase at the end of the third quarter, but semi - steel tire exports may slow down. [106] - The social inventory of natural rubber is neutral, with the difference between dark and light - colored rubber inventories expanding. [106] - Overall, supply may be affected by unexpected weather, demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and inventory is neutral. Rubber prices are expected to have a bottom - support and high price elasticity. [106] - For butadiene rubber, the supply pressure eases, there are many maintenance plans in September - October, and demand has positive support. Short - term butadiene rubber prices are expected to remain strong. [106] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - Futures prices of rubber main contracts showed increases. For example, on August 28, 2025, the RU main contract price was 15,945 yuan/ton, up 1,385 yuan from July 31, 2025. [5] - The basis of rubber main contracts changed. The RU main contract basis was - 945 yuan/ton on August 28, 2025, down 935 yuan from July 31, 2025. [7] - The spread between RU index and NR index gradually widened. On August 28, 2025, the spread was 3,017 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 379 yuan. [12] - The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber was at a high level, enhancing the substitution of synthetic rubber. [18] 3.2 Supply - In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons. [25] - In China, natural rubber imports decreased year - on - year, while mixed rubber imports continued to rise year - on - year. [42] - The supply pressure of butadiene decreased in September. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased slightly, and there were many new butadiene device projects in 2025 - 2028. [43][48] - Butadiene rubber production was at a high level, and there were maintenance plans for butadiene rubber devices in September - October. [49][53] 3.3 Demand - In 2025, global natural rubber consumption was expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. In China, tire exports increased in July 2025, and automobile production and sales continued to grow. [60][67] - The average operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased slightly in August. The inventory turnover days of all - steel tires decreased slightly, while those of semi - steel tires increased slightly. [61][65] 3.4 Inventory - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased compared with July 27, 2025. [74] - As of August 29, 2025, the warehouse receipts of natural rubber were 178,640 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber were 45,662 tons. [78] - As of August 24, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.27 million tons, including 797,000 tons of dark - colored rubber and 473,000 tons of light - colored rubber. [82] - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons. [85] 3.5 Position - The total position of the RU main contract showed certain fluctuations. The total positions of NR and BR changed, with the NR position increasing and the BR position increasing significantly from July 31 to August 28, 2025. [87][89] 3.6 Other (Options) - The report presented the historical volatility and historical volatility cone of natural rubber and butadiene rubber options, as well as the put - call ratios of option trading volume and position. [92][97]