2025年9月涤纶短纤策略报告-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester staple fiber market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The supply side has seen the resumption of some maintenance and load - reducing devices, and the downstream yarn mills' load has increased month - on - month with continuous improvement in demand. The cost side is expected to fluctuate as the TA device autumn inspections increase under low processing fees and the EG port inventory is at a low level with tight spot liquidity. The price of polyester staple fiber is expected to follow the cost side fluctuations, and the improved demand supports the price to be relatively strong. The implementation of peak - season demand should be monitored in the future [71]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - From July 31 to August 28, 2025, the PF main contract closing price increased from 6464 yuan/ton to 6526 yuan/ton, a change of 62 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 1.0%. The 14D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6650 yuan/ton to 6655 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 0.1%. The basis decreased from 186 yuan/ton to 129 yuan/ton, a change of - 57 yuan/ton with a decline rate of 30.6% [4]. - For the price spreads, from July 31 to August 28, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 spread changed from - 40 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a change of - 28 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 70.0%. The PF05 - PF09 spread changed from 98 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton, a change of 66 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 67.3%. The PF09 - PF01 spread changed from - 58 yuan/ton to - 96 yuan/ton, a change of - 38 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 65.5% [9]. 3.2 Polyester Staple Fiber Cost - end: Pay Attention to Device Restoration - PTA: In July 2025, PTA production was 6.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 290,000 tons (4.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 130,000 tons (2.1%). As of August 29, the PTA operating load was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points. Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Sanfangxiang's 1.2 million - ton device was shut down, and the second line of its 3.2 million - ton new device was put into production. In July 2025, China's PTA exports were 374,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 119,100 tons (46.66%), and the cumulative export volume from January to July was 2.2311 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 403,700 tons (15.32%) [15][17][18]. - MEG: In July 2025, ethylene - based ethylene glycol production was 991,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. Syngas - based ethylene glycol production was 674,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. The domestic ethylene glycol production was 1.665 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (a month - on - month increase of 5.79%), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) - based ethylene glycol was 77.74% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%). In July 2025, China's ethylene glycol imports were about 591,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42,700 tons due to a significant reduction in US imports. On August 25, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 500,000 tons [22][24]. 3.3 Polyester Staple Fiber Supply - end: Golden September and Silver October - As of August 29, the polyester staple fiber operating load was 92.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. Xiamen Xinhongxiang's 100,000 - ton device restarted in late August. As of August 29, the polyester staple fiber inventory was 13.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 days [25][29][34]. 3.4 Polyester Staple Fiber Demand - end: Order Improvement - As of August 29, the polyester yarn operating rate was 63.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 percentage points; the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom operating rate was 65%, a month - on - month increase of 6 percentage points. In July 2025, China's yarn production was 1.992 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. Among them, Xinjiang's yarn production reached 275,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.5%. The cumulative yarn production in the first seven months of 2025 was 13.426 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [39][40]. - In July 2025, the export of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) was 128,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons (8.94%), with an export average price of 919.35 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 937,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons (29.42%) [50]. 3.5 Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Terminal Demand Expected to Shrink - In July 2025, due to the weakening of the "rush - to - export" effect and the obstruction of re - export trade, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. The textile and clothing export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. Among them, textile exports were 11.6 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%; clothing exports were 15.16 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The cumulative export from January to July was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, with the growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the first half of the year and lagging behind the national goods trade level [55]. - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods from January to July was 7.079 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. Among them, the sales of food, clothing, and daily - use products increased by 14.7%, 1.7%, and 5.8% respectively [58]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - Futures Positioning: On August 28, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 23,246 lots, 157 lots, and 2,483 lots respectively. Compared with July 31, 2025, the month - on - month changes were 10,892 lots, 88 lots, and - 80,719 lots respectively. Compared with August 28, 2024, the year - on - year changes were 13,666 lots, 59 lots, and 111 lots respectively [63]. - Options: The report provides charts of historical volatility and historical volatility cones of PF, as well as charts of the closing price of polyester staple fiber and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest [64][69].