Guoxin Securities·2025-09-01 11:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry has shown strong performance, with the fluorochemical index rising by 16.75% in August, outperforming major indices [1][15]. - Main refrigerant prices are expected to continue stable growth, driven by limited supply and strong demand, particularly for R32 and R134a [2][22]. - The development of liquid cooling technology is anticipated to significantly boost demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional cooling methods become inadequate [4][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of August 29, 2025, the fluorochemical index reached 1681.54 points, up 16.75% from the end of July, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 7.77 percentage points [1][15]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - R32 prices are projected to rise to 62,000 CNY/ton by November, while R134a is expected to reach 54,000 CNY/ton [2][22]. - Export prices for R32, R22, and R134a as of July 2025 were 46,576 CNY/ton, 26,480 CNY/ton, and 44,598 CNY/ton respectively [2][35]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The shift towards liquid cooling in data centers is driven by increasing power densities, with a projected market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [62][66]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [4][70]. 4. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses China's compliance with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs production and usage planned for 2025-2030 [71][74]. - The production quota for R22 is set to decrease by 28% compared to 2024, reflecting ongoing regulatory pressures [74][76]. 5. Key Company Forecasts - Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are recommended as investment targets due to their strong market positions and growth potential in the refrigerant sector [5][8].