铝策略月报-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the resumption of alumina production will increase, and warehouse receipts will gradually accumulate, further strengthening the expectation of oversupply. Due to the rainy season in Guinea and the domestic parade period, there are strong disturbance factors on the ore side. Alumina should be mainly shorted on rallies, but chasing the decline is not recommended. - Before the "Golden September" peak season, the stocking speed of downstream sectors has started quickly. There is a possibility of exceeding expectations in the demand for electrolytic aluminum during the peak - season cycle, and the profits of the aluminum industry will continue to shift from the upstream to the downstream. Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum. - Due to the peak - season mismatch of aluminum alloy, there is room for the spread of far - month contracts to continue to repair. Opportunities such as the widening of the AL2510 - AO2510 spread and the narrowing of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread can be tracked. Attention should be paid to the pace of the US interest - rate cut and the confirmation or falsification of strong demand. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price - In August, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 29th, the main contract closed at 3036 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 5.8%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 20740 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 1.1%. The aluminum alloy futures also fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 20350 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 6%. [5][6] 3.2 Spread - In August, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 190 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum's discount widened from 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. [5][9] 3.3 Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that in August, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina will increase to 91.09 million tons, with a production of 7.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. In August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum slightly increased to 43.9 million tons, with a production of 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The molten - aluminum ratio slightly dropped to 73.7%. [3][5] 3.4 Demand - As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the processing end has started to recover steadily. In August, the average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 59.7%, an increase of 1.04% compared with July. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips increased by 2.3% to 65.6%, the operating rate of aluminum foils increased by 0.24% to 69.7%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.63% to 50.63%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.19% to 62.95%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.21% to 53.15%. [3][5] 3.5 Inventory - In terms of exchange inventories, in August, alumina inventories increased by 82,200 tons to 88,200 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventories increased by 8,815 tons to 124,605 tons; LME inventories increased by 20,800 tons to 481,150 tons. In terms of social inventories, alumina monthly inventories increased by 15,000 tons to 63,000 tons; aluminum ingot monthly inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 620,000 tons; aluminum rod monthly inventories decreased by 13,000 tons to 134,000 tons. [3][5]