Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 11:23Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, after entering the traditional peak season, the resumption of production in the north and south and the increase in crystalline silicon will become marginal drivers. There is room for improvement in the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. [4] - After the previous anti - involution news was fully priced, the trading center of polysilicon gradually shifted to the fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of the terminal power station yield, the acceptance of price increases in the component link has reached its peak, and the silicon material has cooled down along with the downstream market sentiment. Before specific policy measures are introduced, the market is still in a game between policy boost and fundamental drag. Polysilicon has entered a range mode with obvious top and bottom, and policy dynamics have a phased disturbance effect on the market. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - In August, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 29th, the main contract closed at 8,420 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 4.97%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 49,555 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 0.87%. [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices were stable with a weak trend. The price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton monthly, and the price of N - type polysilicon increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 48,300 yuan/ton monthly. [5] 3.3 Spreads - In August, the spread between 553 widened, the spread between high - and low - grade products remained stable, the regional spread of 553 remained stable, and the regional spread of 421 remained stable. [5] 3.4 Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in August was 369,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4% and a month - on - month increase of 11.6%. The monthly number of open furnaces increased by 31 to 293, and the furnace opening rate increased by 3.89% to 36.8%. [4][5] 3.5 Demand - In August, the polysilicon production increased by 18,200 tons to 125,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The DMC production increased by 58,800 tons to 217,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.8% and a month - on - month increase of 37%. [4][5] 3.6 Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon in August increased by 30 tons to 253,300 tons, and the inventory of polysilicon increased by 110,400 tons to 206,400 tons. In terms of social inventory, the inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 7,000 tons to 435,900 tons in August, among which the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 261,400 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 55,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased by 2,000 tons to 70,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port increased by 1,000 tons to 49,500 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon decreased by 30,400 tons to 24,500 tons. [4][5]