Wanlian Securities·2025-09-01 11:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [5][17]. Core Insights - Sales have stabilized and revenue has slightly increased, with a reported revenue of 20.491 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.904 billion yuan, up 7.21% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has benefited from a decrease in raw material costs, leading to an increase in both gross margin (43.70%, up 2.10 percentage points) and net margin (19.39%, up 0.85 percentage points) [3]. - The company is expected to see continued improvement in profitability due to cost reductions and a recovery in the dining sector, which is driving demand for beer [3]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In the first half of 2025, Qingdao Beer achieved a product sales volume of 2.713 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 3.95%. The sales volume of mid-to-high-end products reached 1.992 million kiloliters, growing by 5.06% [2]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.28%, and a net profit of 2.194 billion yuan, up 7.32% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company’s gross margin and net margin have improved due to lower costs of barley and other raw materials. The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio remained stable at 10.67% and 3.33%, respectively [3]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.795 billion yuan, 5.229 billion yuan, and 5.644 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.35%, 9.06%, and 7.95% respectively [3][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - As a leading domestic beer brand, Qingdao Beer has positioned itself in the high-end and ultra-high-end markets, which is expected to drive further price increases in the future [3]. - The report maintains profit forecasts and estimates earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 3.51 yuan, 3.83 yuan, and 4.14 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 18, and 17 times [3][9].