黑色报告：下游需求依然疲弱谨防旺季调整风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply policy of the steel industry remains rigid, and the subsequent policy impact on the black commodity price is expected to be neutral. The manufacturing PMI improved in August 2025 but remained below the boom - bust line [2]. - There may be a situation where the peak season is not prosperous in the steel market due to the limited real downstream demand and the profit - taking of basis positive spreads [3]. - The black market is expected to experience short - term price adjustments and medium - term oscillations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy and Macro - economic Environment - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, with the average annual growth of the steel industry's added value at about 4% from 2025 - 2026. The subsequent policy on combating "involution" may be mild [2]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index in June 2025 was 50.5%, showing continuous improvement [2][91]. Pricing and Market Rhythm - The basis positive spreads built in the early stage are entering the closing period, and the real downstream demand for steel is limited, which may lead to a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [3]. Supply and Demand Situation Demand Side - In the real estate sector, the high - frequency sales data of new houses declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year new construction area was negative. Although policies in some areas were relaxed, the overall demand for building materials was still weak [3]. - In infrastructure projects, there were many project starts, but there were still capital pressures, and the overall construction progress was slow, with the concrete delivery volume still showing a year - on - year decrease [3]. - For rolled steel, the demand from downstream industries such as machinery, automobiles, containers, and home appliances was acceptable, but the upward rebound elasticity of rolled steel was limited [3]. - The export policy is expected to have a significant impact on the "buying orders for export" after mid - September [3]. Supply Side - There may be a slight production restriction during the military parade, but the overall supply is expected to remain strong. The iron - making water output is expected to remain at a high level [4]. Cost and Profit - The futures prices of raw materials such as coking coal rebounded, and coke had the eighth round of price increases. The disk valuation is expected to be between the valley - electricity and flat - electricity valuations [4]. Key Strategy Recommendations - Steel, ore, coking coal, coke, and ferrosilicon are expected to fluctuate [5]. - For manganese silicon, it is recommended to be short on rallies in the medium term [5]. - For the spread between ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, a long position is recommended [5]. - The spread between rolled steel and spiral steel may decline from a high level [5]. - Pay attention to the long - term recovery of the steel - ore price ratio under production restrictions [5]. - For the basis of steel, pay attention to the closing of positive spreads in the peak season and the establishment of reverse spreads [5]. - Hold short positions in steel wide - straddle options [5].