NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-09-01 11:35Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 832.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.0 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a 4.7 percentage point drop in gross margin to 17.4%, primarily due to reduced profits from projects acquired during the previous industry cycle [3]. - The company remains focused on core cities, achieving a sales amount of 1,201.1 billion yuan in development business, a decrease of 19.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from first-tier cities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 832.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.0 billion yuan and a core profit of 87.8 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.5%, 16.6%, and 17.5% respectively [3][4]. - The gross margin decreased to 17.4%, while the ratio of operating expenses fell to 3.8%, indicating improved operational efficiency [3]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s development business sales amounted to 1,201.1 billion yuan, with first-tier cities and Hong Kong contributing 556.5 billion yuan, accounting for 53.7% of total sales [3]. - The company acquired 17 projects in H1 2025, with a land cost of 401.1 billion yuan and a land area of 2.57 million square meters, maintaining a strong focus on first-tier cities [3][4]. Commercial Operations - The company reported stable commercial revenue of 35.4 billion yuan, with office buildings and shopping centers contributing 17 billion yuan and 11.7 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The occupancy rate for mature shopping centers reached 96.2%, with sales and foot traffic increasing by 6.7% and 11.0% year-on-year [4]. Financial Health - The company holds cash reserves of 1,089.6 billion yuan, representing 12.1% of total assets, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.7% and a net debt ratio of 28.4% [4]. - The average financing cost decreased by 20 basis points to 2.9%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,893.4 billion yuan, 1,927.7 billion yuan, and 1,983.4 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 154.3 billion yuan, 160.7 billion yuan, and 170.9 billion yuan respectively [5][6].