资金跟踪系列之九：两融活跃度续创“924”新高，加速买入趋势依然延续

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries have both declined, with inflation expectations remaining largely unchanged [1][15]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened overall, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and loose. The term spread (10Y-1Y) has widened [1][15]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity continues to rise, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile. Sectors such as TMT, consumer services, light industry, machinery, and automotive are performing particularly well [2][28]. - The volatility of major indices, except for the CSI 1000, has increased, while most industry volatilities remain below the 80th percentile [2][34]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, automotive, and computer sectors are leading in research activity, with a rising trend in research heat for pharmaceuticals, communications, food and beverage, agriculture, home appliances, and chemicals [3][46]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously lowered the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. However, sectors such as non-bank financials, metals, media, and communications have seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts for the same period [4][19]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 have been raised, while those for the CSI 300 have been lowered. The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices have been adjusted in opposite directions [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity continues to rise, with a slight net sell-off overall. The trading volume ratio for electronic, communication, and computer sectors has increased, while it has decreased for pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and electric power sectors [5][32]. - Northbound trading has mainly net bought sectors such as chemicals, metals, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling has occurred in electronics, computers, construction, and public utilities [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has reached a new high since September 2024, with net purchases primarily in the electronic, communication, and computer sectors. The financing buy-in ratio for electronics, textiles, and coal sectors has increased significantly [6][38]. - Margin financing continues to net buy across various styles of sectors, including large, mid, and small-cap growth and value stocks [6][39]. Group 7: Active Fund Positions - Active equity funds have slightly reduced their positions, primarily increasing allocations in chemicals, communications, and food and beverage sectors, while decreasing in military, oil and gas, and steel sectors [8][47]. - The correlation of active equity funds with large, mid, and small-cap value stocks has increased, while the correlation with growth stocks has decreased [8][48]. Group 8: ETF Activity - ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, particularly in those related to brokers, CSI 300, and dividend strategies, while those tracking the Sci-Tech 50, CSI 500, and ChiNext have experienced net redemptions [8][52]. - The main net purchases in ETFs have been in non-bank financials, chemicals, and computers, while the main net sales have been in pharmaceuticals, electric power, and electronics [8][53].