Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. This week, a float production line started production, so the output may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The overall shipment in the East China market is acceptable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. Some enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices during the week, driving production and sales. The downstream replenished goods in moderation, but most purchases were for rigid demand. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure on the 01 contract is at the 1200 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The weekly average spot price of the domestic float glass market was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88 yuan/ton from the previous period. In the North China market, the overall operation was mediocre, with some manufacturers slightly reducing prices or offering certain preferential policies, and the shipment situation varied. In the East China market, the spot price showed mixed trends. Some enterprises loosened prices at the beginning of the week to relieve shipment pressure, while some low - priced enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices, and the production and sales improved significantly [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - side: As of August 28, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, flat month - on - month. A float production line started production this week, and the output may increase slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 188.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.43 yuan/ton month - on - month; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 109.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.91 yuan/ton month - on - month; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 25.66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.86 yuan/ton month - on - month [12]. - Demand - side: As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 250340,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level [14]. - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in the North China market was average, and the inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The overall shipment in the East China market was acceptable, and the inventory decreased month - on - month [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of August 29, the long positions of the top 20 members in glass futures were 750,795, a decrease of 33,442, and the short positions were 948,565, a decrease of 32,202. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is stable. This week, a float production line started production, so the output may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The overall shipment in the East China market is acceptable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. Some enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices during the week, driving production and sales. The downstream replenished goods in moderation, but most purchases were for rigid demand. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure on the 01 contract is at the 1200 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23].
供需较稳，企业库存小幅下降
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-01 11:48