Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints In August, the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore ran smoothly, with port inventories showing a continuous downward trend and prices remaining relatively stable. However, the supply pressure increased as the current shipment reached a new high for the year, with significant increases in Brazil and non - mainstream mines, and obvious rebounds in arrivals. On the demand side, the molten iron output continued to decline month - on - month, and the northern production restrictions at the end of the month would cause periodic disturbances to demand, weakening the supply - demand situation. In terms of valuation, after the finished product prices fell, the spot and futures profits shrank significantly, causing price pressure adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support around $90, and cautious operations are recommended [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - Price: In August, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with monthly increases ranging from 12 - 30 yuan. As of August 29, the Platts 62% index was at $103.6, up $4.55 month - on - month, equivalent to about 860 yuan in RMB. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore was at par with the spot [6]. - Inventory: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory was 143.88 million tons, a decrease of 560,000 tons from the previous period, 12.22 million tons from the beginning of the year, and 16.91 million tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may increase slightly in the next period [6]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume in this period was 3.5568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 241,000 tons. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.8081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 115,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.8115 million tons, a decrease of 69,500 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4504 million tons, a decrease of 207,800 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 996,600 tons, an increase of 185,000 tons [7]. - Demand: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills in this period was 240,130 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 6,200 tons per day. There were 4 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace shutdown and restart plan, the molten iron output may continue to decline in the next period [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price: As of August 29, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal was PB powder [14]. - Iron Ore Inter - period: As of August 29, the spread between iron ore 09 and 01 contracts was 15.5 (-3.5) [17]. - Iron Ore Import Profit: The content does not mention relevant data. - High - Low Grade Price Difference: The content does not mention relevant data. - Premium Index: As of August 28, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1835 (+0.0025), and that for 65% pellets was 16.4 (+0.4) [26]. - Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory: The content presents the inventory trends and premium (discount) situations of various iron ore brands in 15 ports [29]. - Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory: As of August 29, the imported sintered fine ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills was 1.206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%, and the domestic sintered fine ore inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.94% [32]. - 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption: As of August 29, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9.0072 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%, and the daily consumption was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [35]. - Port Inventory, Berthing: The content shows the trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, and inventories of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores in 45 ports [38]. - Port Inventory - By Ore Type: As of August 29, the imported port lump ore inventory was 1.654 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%; the pellet ore inventory was 283,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%; the iron concentrate inventory was 1.113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; and the coarse powder inventory was 10.713 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20% [41]. - Siltage: The content presents the historical siltage volume data from 2020 - 2025 [44]. - Iron Ore Floating Quantity: The content shows the floating quantity trends of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China [47]. - Iron Ore Import Quantity: The content presents the import quantity trends of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [50][51][57]. - Australia's Iron Ore Shipment Volume: As of August 29, Australia's shipment to China was 1.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53%, and the total shipment was 1.812 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69% [60]. - Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment Volume: As of August 29, Brazil's shipment to the world was 997,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.78% [65]. - Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines: As of August 29, the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 2.112 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Among them, Vale's shipment volume increased significantly, while Rio Tinto's decreased [66]. - Iron Ore Arrival: As of August 29, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, and the arrival volume at northern ports was 1.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% [73]. - Freight: The content shows the historical freight trends from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75]. - Domestic Ore Production (Estimated): As of August 29, the iron concentrate output of mines was 76,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%, and the inventory was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [77]. - Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption & Steel Mill Capacity Utilization: As of August 29, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%, and the average daily molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [79]. - Pig Iron Production: The content presents the daily pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [84]. - Global Pig Iron Production: The content shows the pig iron production trends of the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China [87]. - Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production: The content presents the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [92].
铁矿：吨钢利润收缩，矿价承压
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-01 12:00