Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the divergence between the improvement of macro - expectations and the bearish industrial factors [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may continue to lack the momentum to rebound and maintain a volatile and weak trend because of the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain a volatile and weak trend as the South American geopolitical factors are digested and the market returns to the weak supply - demand fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 4.70% to 73,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.28% to 532,900 tons. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [10]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.31%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.31%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.33%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.91% [11]. - As of August 29, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 116 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 62,300 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 72. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 6.891 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [13]. - As of August 26, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 109,472 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,737 contracts and a significant decrease of 73,698 contracts from the July average of 183,170 contracts, a decrease of 40.23%. As of August 26, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,146 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,253 contracts and a significant decrease of 17,930 contracts from the July average of 220,076 contracts, a decrease of 8.15% [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,860 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | - 960 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,235 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,385 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | - 34 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 468.9 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 483.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | +2.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]
橡胶甲醇原油：多空分歧加剧，能化震荡整理
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-01 11:57