Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic steel prices fluctuated and declined. The main driving force for the decline was the seasonal weakening of off - season consumption, continuous high production, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation. After the decline in steel prices, the spot and futures profits per ton of steel continued to shrink. There was an expectation of a decline in hot metal production before the parade, and the raw material support was insufficient. In the short term, there might be a downward resonance. After September 3rd, attention should be paid to the recovery speed of supply and demand, and it was expected that the inventory would continue to accumulate. In terms of valuation, the October contract had returned to the delivery logic, and the January contract of rebar had fallen below the long - process cost. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the intensity of production cuts, and the cost pressure of off - peak electricity should be noted during the rebound [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Production - In August, domestic steel spot prices fell. As of the end of August, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price of hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton. As of August 28th, the overall output of the five major steel products increased by 6.55 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.33 tons month - on - month, the social inventory increased by 29.17 tons, and the apparent demand was 857.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.78 tons [7] Profit - As of August 28th, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive tax cost of rebar was 3152 yuan/ton, and the point - to - point profit was about 108 yuan; the cash - inclusive tax profit of hot - rolled coil was about 158 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market in East China, the cost of flat - rate electricity was about 3346 yuan/ton, and the cost of off - peak electricity was about 3218 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar with flat - rate electricity was about - 146 yuan/ton, and the profit with off - peak electricity was about - 18 yuan/ton [7] Scrap Steel - As of August 28th, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27 tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 tons. The average daily arrival of scrap steel at 255 sample steel mills was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96 tons, a decline of 5.4%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 451.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.67 tons, a decline of 2.1% [8] Macro Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 17% year - on - year [23] - From January to July 2025, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 638731 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The new construction area was 35206 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed area was 25034 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [26] Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to be strong [37] Supply Long - Process Supply - As of August 29th, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the average daily hot metal output was 240.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [40] Short - Process Supply - As of August 28th, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 34.7%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 15.18 yuan, an increase of 4.31 yuan [43] Demand Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220.56 tons, an increase of 5.91 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 189.2 tons, an increase of 4.43 tons; the short - process output was 31.2 tons, an increase of 1.42 tons [56] - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 169.62 tons, a decrease of 4.19 tons; the social inventory was 453.77 tons, an increase of 21.26 tons; the total inventory was 623.39 tons, an increase of 16.35 tons [71] Hot - Rolled Coil - This week, the output of hot - rolled coil was 324.74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons; the apparent demand was 320.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.79 tons, the social inventory increased by 3.23 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 4.02 tons [74] Export - As of August 29th, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, the export profit was 0.5 US dollars, an increase of 2.5 US dollars; the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 225.58 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons [87]
库存持续累积，吨钢利润收缩
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-01 11:52