天然橡胶周报：产区天气持续扰动，成本支撑偏强震荡-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for natural rubber is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is affected by continuous disturbances in the weather of the producing areas, with strong cost support. The inventory in the middle reaches has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated slightly. The sentiment in the commodity market is weak, so it may maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply in domestic, Thai, and Vietnamese producing areas is tight due to weather disturbances, driving up raw material prices [3] - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in the next period [3] - Inventory: As of August 24, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [3][102] - Basis/Spread: The RU - mixed spread has slightly widened, and the RU - NR spread has slightly narrowed [3] - Profit: The theoretical production profits of Thai standard rubber, Hainan concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber have all shown losses [3] - Valuation: The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still high [3] - Commodity Market: The overall atmosphere is bearish as it approaches the 09 - contract delivery, and the previous hype sentiment has cooled down [3] - Investment View: It is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on BR and short on NR [3] Futures and Spot Market Review - Market Review: Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, natural rubber has maintained an oscillating performance. The supply is less than expected, the raw material price is high, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the market sentiment is weak [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices have rebounded slightly [9] - Position on the Disk: The total position of NR has increased significantly [23] - Spread on the Disk: The RU1 - 9 spread has declined [31] Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Weather in Producing Areas: Rainfall in the producing areas continues to cause disturbances [39] - Output of Major Producing Countries: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63] - Export Volume of Major Producing Countries: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73] - China's Import: From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%). In July, the import volume increased slightly month - on - month [86][101] - Mid - stream Inventory: China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [102] - Downstream Tire Demand: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has fluctuated slightly and is expected to decline slightly in the next period [118] - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [124] - Tire Exports: From January to July, China's rubber tire exports were 5.34 million tons (+4.9%) [134] - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber is in the red, while the production profit of Thai latex is stable [142]