Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oils, they are expected to experience a short - term correction but have good fundamentals and remain bullish in the medium to long term. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the correction, and consider the palm oil 1 - 5 reverse spread [8]. - For protein meals, they are expected to mainly trade in a range, with a phased rebound after over - selling. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunities of oversold rebounds, short - term positive spreads of soybean meal 1 - 5, and in the short term, the oil - meal ratio will decline, while in the medium to long term, oils will be stronger than meals [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint Strategy Oils - Core Logic: The good growth of US soybeans, upcoming harvest in September, and large export pressure, along with the decline of Brazilian soybean exports and increased Argentine exports, affect the soybean market. EPA's bio - fuel decision is pending. CBOT soybeans trade in a range, and soybean imports and refinery operating rates are expected to decrease in September. Indonesian palm oil production increases but inventory is low, and Malaysian palm oil production changes little and is expected to have a small inventory build - up. Canadian rapeseed harvest is slow but expected to speed up, and Canadian rapeseed imports will decrease while Australian imports increase, with rapeseed oil inventory continuing to decline. Trade policies between China, Canada, and the US need attention [8]. - Cost and Profit: As of August 29, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for October delivery is 3878 yuan/ton with a盘面 gross profit of 51 yuan/ton; the import cost of palm oil (September shipment) is 9560 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 409 yuan/ton and a 盘面 profit of - 103 yuan/ton for September shipment; the theoretical import cost of Canadian rapeseed (September shipment) is 4468 yuan/ton (excluding margin), with a spot crushing profit of 815 yuan/ton and a 盘面 crushing profit of 724 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply: The estimated soybean import volume in September is 9.6 million tons, rapeseed is 130,000 tons, and palm oil is 710,000 tons [8]. - Demand: In August, the total trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic refineries increased by 67.31% month - on - month, palm oil increased by 88.53%, and rapeseed oil increased by 33.33% [8]. - Inventory: As of August 22, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4091 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.75% [8]. - Strategy: Wait for the opportunity to go long after the correction and consider the palm oil 1 - 5 reverse spread [8]. Protein Meals - Core Logic: Similar to the soybean situation in the oil analysis, the supply pressure of US soybeans increases in September, and Brazilian soybean exports decline. Canadian rapeseed harvest is expected to speed up, and Canadian rapeseed imports will decrease. Trade policies between China, Canada, and the US need attention. It is expected that soybean and rapeseed meals will trade in a range and rebound after over - selling [11]. - Cost and Profit: As of August 29, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for October delivery is 3878 yuan/ton with a 盘面 gross profit of 51 yuan/ton; the theoretical import cost of Canadian rapeseed (September shipment) is 4468 yuan/ton (excluding margin), with a spot crushing profit of 815 yuan/ton and a 盘面 crushing profit of 724 yuan/ton [11]. - Supply: The estimated soybean import volume in September is 9.6 million tons, and rapeseed is 130,000 tons [11]. - Demand: In August, the total trading volume of soybean meal increased by 13.2% month - on - month and 16.24% year - on - year. The pick - up volume of rapeseed meal in coastal refineries decreased by 28,200 tons compared with the previous month, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal is also at a low level [11]. - Inventory: In the 34th week, the refinery soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.71%, and it is expected to gradually decline in September. As of August 29, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.87 days, an increase of 1.12 days compared with the end of July. The coastal refinery rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.36%, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory decreased from a high level [11]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the band - trading opportunities of oversold rebounds, short - term positive spreads of soybean meal 1 - 5, and in the short term, the oil - meal ratio will decline, while in the medium to long term, oils will be stronger than meals [11]. 02 2025 August Oil and Meal Market Review - Oils: In the first half of August, oils were bullish. The MPOB report was positive for palm oil, the USDA report was positive for CBOT soybeans, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed affected rapeseed oil. In the second half, due to risk warnings, news of Australian rapeseed purchases, and the digestion of positive reports, oils declined [14]. - Protein Meals: In the first half of August, they were bullish due to positive USDA and MPOB reports and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. In the second half, they declined due to risk warnings, news of soybean reserves release, and expectations of trade negotiations [26]. 03 Oils and Oilseeds Fundamental Analysis International Situation - Global Soybeans: According to the USDA August supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 season, global soybean production is expected to be 426.39 million tons, consumption is 425.10 million tons, and inventory will slightly decrease. The production of major countries such as the US, Brazil, and Argentina will change, with the US production decreasing, Brazil increasing, and Argentina decreasing [33][36]. - US Soybeans: The planting area is expected to decrease, but the yield per acre is expected to increase. The weather is normal, and the growth is good. The 7 - month soybean crushing volume exceeded expectations, and the crushing profit is improving. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans declined in mid - to - late August, and Argentine soybean exports increased due to tariff cuts [39][53][60]. - Palm Oil: In June, Indonesian palm oil inventory continued to decline. In August, Malaysian palm oil production changed little, and the inventory build - up was lower than expected [63][70]. - Canadian Rapeseed: The harvest progress is slow, but it is expected to speed up due to less rainfall in the next half - month [77][82]. Domestic Situation - Soybeans: The procurement progress of different shipment months varies. It is expected that soybean imports will decrease from September to October. The refinery soybean inventory is high but expected to decrease. The import cost of soybeans first increased and then decreased in August, and the soybean crushing volume remained high [88][92][105]. - Palm Oil: The import cost first increased and then decreased, the import profit improved, the import volume was low in July, and it is expected to increase slightly in September [109][113][117]. - Rapeseed: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed is high, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly. The refinery rapeseed inventory is low, the August crushing volume declined, and it is expected to continue to decline [122][130][139]. - Inventory and Demand: The inventory of the three major oils continued to build up to a high level, with different trends for each oil. The demand for oils improved in August. The refinery soybean meal inventory continued to build up but is expected to decline in September, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak [143][151][154]. 04 Arbitrage Spread Tracking Oils Inter - period Spread - For some spreads, it is advisable to wait and see; for the palm oil 1 - 5 reverse spread, the position can be held [174]. Cross - variety Spread - For the spread of long soybean oil and short rapeseed oil, there may be a short - term repair opportunity; for others, it is advisable to wait and see [178]. Protein Meal Inter - period Spread - Short - term positive spreads of soybean meal 1 - 5 can be considered; for others, it is advisable to wait and see [183].
油脂粕类9月报：油脂等待回调后做多，粕类区间震荡-20250901
Fo Shan Jin Kong Qi Huo·2025-09-01 12:29