Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate main contract has experienced significant fluctuations due to frequent disturbances on the supply side and needs time for digestion and consolidation in the short term. If the supply - side disturbance expectations remain unchanged, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in September, and prices may rise irrationally. Attention should be paid to whether the other 7 mining enterprises in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [4]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate may weaken next week, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. August Market Review - In August, the lithium carbonate main contract first rose and then fell, with the futures price breaking through 90,000 yuan/ton at its highest. Supply - side news had many disturbances, but the actual impact on the fundamentals was small, and price fluctuations were mainly due to futures market capital games [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - In August, despite supply - side disturbances, the monthly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high due to the increase in capacity utilization and hedging by external - purchasing enterprises. As of August 29, the weekly output decreased to 19,000 tons, with different trends in production from different sources. The import volume has declined for three consecutive months but is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential production halt of 7 mining enterprises in Yichun after September 30 [6][7]. Demand - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 311,400 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 3% to 70,800 tons. In the power market in July, new energy vehicle production and sales showed seasonal slowdown, and the power battery loading volume decreased. In the energy storage market, demand orders are good, with saturated production schedules in September and October, and high - price transactions for forward orders. The industry's anti - low - price initiative is expected to improve profitability [8][9]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, domestic inventory decreased slightly, with social inventory still exceeding 140,000 tons. Inventory is flowing from processing plants to downstream sectors, and warehouse receipts are rising after centralized cancellations [10]. 3. Technical Analysis - The 2 - hour cycle Band Winner indicator of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, indicating that the contract may weaken in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle long - short dividing water level overnight is 80,960 yuan/ton [11].
天富期货碳酸锂日报-20250901
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-01 12:43