镍、不锈钢月度策略报告-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of nickel ore is stable. The weekly inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, but the supply increased, and the inventory pressure may become apparent. With the rising price of raw materials, the cost support for stainless steel has strengthened. In the new energy sector, the demand for ternary materials is gradually increasing, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up may increase. The supply of raw materials is relatively tight, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. The weekly inventory of primary nickel decreased, and the cumulative consumption in China from January to July increased by nearly 50% year - on - year. Previously, the nickel price basically fluctuated within a range. The weekly nickel price rebounded to the center of the range. With the marginal improvement of nickel iron and the new energy sector, the nickel price may still fluctuate strongly [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly prices: The price of Shanghai nickel remained flat, while LME nickel rose 2.1%. The prices of nickel iron and nickel sulfate both increased. The spot price of stainless steel rose this month, and the spot premium increased by 200 yuan/ton to 395 yuan/ton [6][60]. 3.2 Inventory - For nickel: The LME inventory decreased by 54 tons to 209,544 tons within the week; the Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 108 tons to 21,905 tons; the social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,470 tons; and the bonded area inventory remained at 4,700 tons. - For stainless steel: The total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the national mainstream stainless - steel market decreased by 0.88 tons to 108.3 tons week - on - week, among which the 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.4 tons to 65.4 tons [4][66]. 3.3 Supply - Nickel - related supply: In July 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 29,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.89%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of domestic refined nickel was 229,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.14%. The supply of MHP was tight, the coefficient increased significantly, the cost of nickel sulfate strengthened, the demand increased, and the price rose. The supply of stainless - steel is expected to increase month - on - month [4][21]. - Stainless - steel supply: The domestic supply of stainless steel is expected to increase month - on - month, and the overseas supply, represented by Indonesia, is also shown through relevant capacity and output data [73][76]. 3.4 Demand - Nickel demand in different sectors: - Stainless steel: The theoretical profit decreased due to the rising price of raw materials and the falling price of finished products. - New energy: The weekly output of ternary materials increased by 102 tons to 16,667 tons, and the inventory increased by 321 tons to 17,617 tons. The weekly output of power cells increased by 5% to 23.86 GWh, among which lithium - iron phosphate cells increased by 7% to 18.03 GWh, and ternary cells increased by 2% to 6.96 GWh. From August 1 - 24, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 727,000, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The wholesale volume was 711,000, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month increase of 3% [4]. - Stainless - steel consumption: It is related to various industries such as real estate, home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines), automobiles, ships, and power - generation equipment. For example, the real - estate data shows the current situation of investment, construction, and sales, which affects the demand for stainless steel [83][84]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate is presented through relevant charts, and the supply - demand balance of stainless steel is also shown through a balance sheet [56][92].