Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The overseas market is trading on the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the issue of its independence, with the falling US dollar index supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline in September, and imported copper may increase. Although demand is affected by tariffs and pre - emptive exports, there is an improving trend [10]. - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited. After the market rebound, it stimulates downstream purchasing sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, there is demand support below. However, the market is easily affected by industry news, and attention should be paid to mine disturbances [12]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short on rallies. Although the price once rebounded due to positive EIA data and market bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut, the consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the supply - demand situation is weakening [13][15]. - Asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply - demand situation is weak, with the开工 rate falling, demand restricted by factors such as funds and weather, and limited cost support from crude oil [16]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate is gradually rising, and the peak season may bring some boost. However, the supply is increasing, and the market is affected by global trade wars and anti - involution policies [17][18]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. Although the agricultural film industry is improving, the overall demand is still weak, and it is affected by anti - involution policies [19]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is large [20][21]. - The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The price is under pressure due to imported coal, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of coke price adjustments [22]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate. In the autumn fertilizer peak season, there is some demand support, but the supply is still abundant, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton fluctuation range [24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 1, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, Shanghai silver rose more than 4%, caustic soda and Shanghai gold rose more than 2%, and container shipping to Europe, Shanghai nickel, and stainless steel (SS) rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, glass, coke, and coking coal fell more than 3%, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and soda ash fell more than 2%, and rebar and cotton fell nearly 2%. Stock index futures also showed different degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:19 on September 1, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai copper 2510 inflowed 1.989 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2510 inflowed 1.741 billion yuan, and Shanghai gold 2510 inflowed 1.488 billion yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 outflowed 4.304 billion yuan, CSI 500 2509 outflowed 3.721 billion yuan, and CSI 1000 2509 outflowed 2.89 billion yuan [8]. Individual Variety Analysis Copper - The market opened high and moved low, with a strong - side oscillation. The US PCE price index rose in July. China's copper imports increased in July, and the port inventory of concentrates rebounded. The smelter processing fee decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The import of copper may increase, which will affect the domestic market. The demand is affected by factors such as domestic investment in power grid facilities and the weakening of external demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased. The domestic production is expected to decline from August to September. The demand is supported by the peak - season stocking of power battery factories, but the market is easily affected by industry news [12]. Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decrease, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [13][15]. Asphalt - The supply - side operating rate decreased last week, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased, but it is still at a low level. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [16]. PP - The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s production increase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, but the peak season may bring some boost [17][18]. Plastic - The operating rate decreased on September 1, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. The agricultural film industry is improving, but the overall demand is still weak [19]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate is still low. India extended the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping tax on Chinese PVC increased, weakening the export expectation. The social inventory is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. The new production capacity is increasing, and the price is under pressure [20][21]. Coking Coal - The price opened low and moved low, with a downward oscillation. The price of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The import of coking coal increased in July, and the domestic production decreased due to environmental protection and production cuts. The independent coking enterprises' profit is positive, and the coking coal inventory is decreasing. The coke price increase is not yet finalized, and the steel mill's profit is weakening [22]. Urea - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased in August due to maintenance and environmental protection restrictions, but the new production capacity will be put into operation. The demand of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to the September parade, and the industrial demand is affected by the real - estate market. The inventory increased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range [24].
冠通每日交易策略-20250901
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-09-01 12:35