流动性和机构行为周度观察：9月资金面预计延续相对宽松-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. Although the bank's asset side faces pressures such as government bond issuance and quarter - end credit growth, the central bank's current liquidity injection shows a "caring" attitude, and fiscal expenditures are expected to increase at the quarter - end. However, attention should be paid to the possible preventive tightening of liquidity at the quarter - end and during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays in early October [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funds - Central Bank Operations: From August 25 to August 29, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase net injection was 4661 billion yuan, and the MLF net injection was 3000 billion yuan. From September 1 to September 5, 2025, 22731 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In September, 3000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on the 25th, and 13000 billion yuan of repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature, including 10000 billion yuan of 3M repurchase - style reverse repurchases on September 5. It is expected that the central bank will continue to "precisely drip - irrigate" liquidity in September [7]. - Fund Rates: From August 25 to August 29, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 13.0 and 13.5 basis points respectively compared with August 18 - August 22; the average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 0.5 and increased by 1.0 basis points respectively [8]. - Government Bond Net Payment: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the government bond net payment was about 2114 billion yuan, 834 billion yuan less than the previous week. From September 1 to September 7, 2025, the government bond net payment is expected to be 715.8 billion yuan [9]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Yield to Maturity: As of August 29, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1M and 3M inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 4.1 and 1.0 basis points respectively compared with August 22, and the yield to maturity of 1Y decreased by 0.5 basis points compared with August 15 [10]. - Net Financing Amount: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the net financing amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 1946 billion yuan, and the net financing has been negative for three consecutive weeks. From September 1 to September 7, 2025, the maturity repayment amount is expected to be 3301 billion yuan, with significantly reduced roll - over pressure [10]. 3. Institutional Behavior - Leverage Ratio: From August 25 to August 29, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.70%, up from 107.31% in the previous week [11].