美国财长贝森特：联储主席人选有望成为理事

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased investment in precious metals, with gold approaching its previous high and silver breaking through $40, reaching its highest level since 2011. The A - share market sentiment remains strong, and trading volume is still high. The US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar maintains a weak trend. The stock index futures market is expected to remain bullish in the short term, and the US stock index is expected to fluctuate upward due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][3][4]. - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of various products show different trends. For example, the production of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the production of polycrystalline silicon may increase in September. The price trends of different commodities also vary, with some expected to be volatile, some to decline slightly, and some to have potential upward momentum [5][56]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve should be independent but has made many mistakes. Market concerns about its independence have led to a strong rise in precious metals. The expected trend of gold is bullish but with increased volatility. Whether it can break through the previous high remains to be seen [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The cross - regional traffic volume during the summer vacation increased by 7% year - on - year, and the SCO issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. The A - share market sentiment is strong, and trading volume is high. It is recommended to allocate the stock indices evenly [16][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary's statement implies that the US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak [23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are hard to ease, but short - term expectations of interest rate cuts support the risk appetite of the US stock market. The index is expected to fluctuate upward [25][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through reverse repurchase operations. There are opportunities to go long on treasury bonds, but the rhythm needs to be grasped [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August, the national soybean crushing volume increased, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose slightly. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US balance sheet and Sino - US relations [29][30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In September, the arrival of imported rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 10.22% month - on - month. It is recommended to gradually lay out long positions and pay attention to the production in August and the MPOB report [32][33][34]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of raw sugar increased, and the export of Indian sugar in the 2025/26 season may reach 200,000 tons. The domestic sugar market is under pressure from imported processed sugar, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the 1 - month contract on dips [35][36][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has stabilized. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price difference between rice and flour is at a low level. Attention should be paid to the driving factors for widening the price difference [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises in August decreased month - on - month but were still higher than the same period last year. The futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year, and the heavy - truck sales increased by 35%. The steel price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with a callback mindset [43][44][47]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - During the summer vacation, the national railway transported 2.43 billion tons of thermal coal. The price of steam coal is expected to decline slightly seasonally and maintain a range of 650 - 700 yuan [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and short - selling should be cautious [49][50]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal and entering the sugar - increasing period. The futures price is in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [51][52]. 2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Some coal mines are operating normally, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The demand side is under pressure, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polycrystalline Silicon) - There are many positive news, but the production in September may increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in time and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and December [56][58][59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel industry in Indonesia is operating normally. The raw material price is firm, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels [60][61][62]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is less than expected. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [63][64]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The merger of Sayona and Piedmont was completed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities after de - stocking and the strengthening of the basis, as well as positive arbitrage opportunities [65][66]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is weak, and the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to turn from loose to tight. It is recommended to consider long positions at low levels and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [69][70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Traders plan to make large - scale deliveries of copper futures. The market is paying attention to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on a single - side basis and wait and see on an arbitrage basis [71][73][74]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the LME zinc price is strong. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [75][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG in East China is stable, and the 9 - month CP price remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of upward valuation repair of CP [77][78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The supply of Nayara refinery depends entirely on Russia. The oil price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [82][83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has declined, and the basis has weakened. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [85][87][88]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has decreased, mainly due to the reduction of refinery production. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine has increased. The supply of urea is under pressure, and the demand is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the new Indian tender [90][91]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has been slightly adjusted downward, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [92][93]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has increased. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the outlook in the fourth quarter is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy [94][95]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash has decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [97]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The glass market is under pressure, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens [98]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of the Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia increased by 15.4% in the first half of the year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high from late September to early October. The 10 - month contract has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to the support at 1,250 [99][100].